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国家统计局公布最新经济数据显示,今年上半年国内生产总值同比增长6.9%,主要指标好于预期。与此同时,结构优化、转型升级成效持续显现。新常态下,中国经济稳中向好态势更趋明显,经济增长稳定性逐渐增强。
用新常态的大逻辑观察当前经济形势,不仅要看增速自身变化,更要看增速变化背后结构与动能因素的影响,由此判定经济运行是否稳健,增长基础是否扎实。这是当前和今后一个时期主动适应和积极引领新常态亟需强化的新思维。通过对国家统计局数据的进一步分析,可以说,上半年经济增速、结构优化与动力转换呈现良性互动态势,经济增长稳定性获得有效的内在支撑,这是中国经济稳中向好的根本原因。
首先,看速度。消费、投资、进出口“三驾马车”都有不俗表现。消费方面,上半年,社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%,增速比一季度加快0.4个百分点,比上年同期加快0.1个百分点,消费贡献率呈持续上升状态。投资方面,高技术制造业和高技术服务业投资同比分别增长21.5%和22.3%,分别快于全部投资12.9个和13.7个百分点,这一态势对结构优化和动能转换作用不可低估。需要说明的是,尽管上半年固定资产投资增速比一季度略有回落,但与消费贡献因素结合起来看,恰恰可以说明中国经济正在从过度依赖投资转向更加注重消费的积极变化。进出口方面,上半年,进出口总额同比增长19.6%,其中,进口增幅25.7%,亦反映内需潜力的积极态势。尤其是上半年对部分“一带一路”沿线国家进出口的大幅增长态势,更加充分印证中国积极推动破茧成蝶开放型经济所带来的普惠共赢的积极成果。
其次,看结构。增速变化与支撑增长的经济结构的匹配性密切关联。中国经济发展进入新常态,主要矛盾之一,就是旧有经济结构与增长模式难以适应变化万端、层出不穷的国内外市场新需求,一言以蔽之,就是供需结构严重错配。为此,以习近平同志为核心的党中央高瞻远瞩,做出坚持以推进供给侧结构性改革为主线,以提高质量效益为中心的重大决策部署,积极引领经济发展新常态。从上半年经济运行的特点看,扭转供需结构错配的“三去一降一补”扎实推进,改革红利持续释放,结构优化成效不断明显。数据显示,上半年全国工业产能利用率为76.4%,比上年同期提高3.4个百分点。
与此同时,商品房待售面积、企业杠杆率和企业成本连续走低。在短板方面,上半年生态保护和环境治理业、水利管理业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、教育投资同比分别增长46.0%、17.5%、14.7%和17.8%,成效十分明显。
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