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中国经济上半年运行情况公布 专家:经济见底回升势头持续

2017-07-17 14:38:48   国际在线

其中,农业生产形势较好,工业企业利润快速增长,服务业较快增长,投资增速稳中略缓,制造业投资和民间投资增速回升,房地产开发投资增速放缓,商品房待售面积继续减少,进出口快速增长,外贸结构改善,居民消费价格涨势温和,工业品价格涨势放缓。

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所研究员倪月菊对此认为,中国经济可以说延续了去年底以来稳步增长的好势头,在供给侧改革的大背景下,通过调整产业结构,去产能,去杠杆,增长的基础更加坚实。中国经济见底回升势头持续,外贸向好,“一带一路”逐渐发挥带动出口和投资的作用,消费升级,下半年将延续这一态势。她指出,下半年有一个不确定因素,就是房地产去泡沫,如果过猛的话,可能对经济增长有一定的影响。

倪月菊对国际在线表示,今年上半年外贸形趋好受以下几个因素影响。一是世界经济恢复增长及对未来经济增长良好预期的影响,二是中国经济恢复稳定增长,带动外贸增长,三是与“一带一路”国家外贸的快速增长也对外贸增长有很大的促进作用,四是大宗商品价格上涨了10%以上,也带动了外贸进出口额的增长。外贸的增长又回反作用于经济增长。“如果不出现大的意外事件的话,下半年外贸会保持这一增长势头。”

据邢志宏介绍,上半年房地产开发投资增速放缓,商品房待售面积继续减少。上半年,全国房地产开发投资同比增长8.5%,增速比一季度回落0.6个百分点;房屋新开工面积同比增长10.6%,全国商品房销售面积增长16.1%,其中住宅销售面积增长13.5%。

倪月菊对此表示,上半年国家对房地产出台的管控措施的效果,可能会在下半年显现出来。如果房地产增长因此下降的话,与房地产的相关产业也会受到影响,进而会在一定程度上影响经济增长。

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