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金融加杠杆,理想的情况是投向实体经济,满足实体的债务融资需求。但在实体经济杠杆率不断攀升、投资回报率边际下降的时候,资金就会回到金融体系内自我空转、自我膨胀,也就是“脱实向虚”的现象。
金融加杠杆,离不开货币宽松的环境。这些年,从中央银行、商业银行、非银金融机构、实体企业到居民,都成为了加杠杆的主体;加杠杆的渠道,则又有银行表内表外、信托、券商资管、基金专户、基金子公司、保险等。
现在中国的杠杆水平如何呢?
方正证券的研究数据显示,银行表内杠杆,由2013年的14.99倍增长到2016年底的18.79倍;表外杠杆,由2.01倍增长至4.92倍;券商杠杆,由2014年底的8.63倍增长到2016年底的10.72倍;保险杠杆,由2014年底的7.04倍增长至2017年1季度的8.18倍。
这会带来何种风险呢?
风险
答案是,加杠杆过度会带来系统性风险。
一是流动性风险。我们知道,期限长的金融产品利率高于期限短的,银行不断发行短期理财,如1个月、3个月、6个月,然后配置3年、5年以上的标的,通过期限错配赚取利差,通过资金池不断的借新还旧。
过去,在央行提供廉价资金、资金充裕的情况下,这种玩法没问题。银行越是做大规模,越是对短期资金依赖,一旦资金面收紧,就暴露出流动性风险,进而是竞相赎回、抛售资产,资产价格大幅波动,诱发系统性风险。而现在,央行已经明显开始缩表、去杠杆。
二是信用风险。竞争下的金融机构获取资金的成本越来越高,不得不投向更高收益率的信用债、股票、非标等资产,高收益率则意味着高风险。
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