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票价高、盒饭贵的高铁,为何却长期亏损?

2017-04-25 07:40:34   财经网

长三角区域的高铁普遍盈利能力突出,遵循了“人口红利”的逻辑。比如京沪高铁纵贯北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,以及河北、山东、安徽、江苏四省,连接环渤海和长江三角洲这两大最发达、城市化进程最快的经济区。

沿线人口占全国总人口的26.7%,过百万人口的城市占了11个。沪宁、沪杭、宁杭三条高铁则是贯穿了中国城市群最密集、生产力最发达的长三角核心区域。

多位对铁路网有研究的人士都认为,高铁盈利与否最关键的支点还是沿线城市人口密度、经济发达程度所带来的客流量提升。

相比这些人口密集且经济较发达的地区,

很多通往西部地区的高铁运营情况显得非常窘迫。

早在2010年1月就投入运营的郑西高铁(郑州—西安)比京沪高铁更早面世,盈利能力始终堪忧。按照郑西高铁当时的可行性研究报告,在繁忙区段2010年每天开行59对高铁动车组、2018年每天125对、2028年每天177对。

然而,如今郑西高铁每天仅开行30对左右高铁动车组,非但没有递增,连6年前的计划都大打折扣,上座率更是不足五成。

在运营两年后,铁总曾披露过,由于这条高铁线亏损14亿元,拖累原本盈利4亿元的郑州铁路局亏损10亿元。

专家认为西部地区内部流动性较小,从郑州去西安的客流较少,这样的线路只有在铁路网打通后才能在客运量上实现好转。

同样惨淡经营的恐怕还有耗资1435亿元的兰新高铁(兰州—乌鲁木齐),目前兰州到乌鲁木齐每天仅开行5对动车组,只有兰州到西宁这条用时一个多小时的短途线路开行了较多对动车组。

尽管其后车次、客流会逐渐增加,但和东部的高铁相比,其盈利速度相当缓慢,收回成本亦是遥遥无期。

地形复杂、施工难度大、成本高、客流不足等因素,都增加了中西部尤其是西部高铁建设的沉没成本,想全面实现扭亏非短期内能够实现。

在中国广大中西部地区,京沪高铁的盈利模式显然无法复制。

其他运输工具的竞争

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