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春节后一线城市楼市火爆 未来调控政策或收紧

2016-02-24 08:29:18   21世纪经济报道

上海更是屡屡被曝出春节后房东跳价,但销售依旧火爆。在刚刚过去的2015年,上海以超过1.4万亿元的总成交金额成为全球最大房地产市场,成交量也创下历史新高,成交均价同比上涨18%。

去年房价涨幅最快的深圳亦“不甘落后”。经历了春节一周的“零成交”后,2月15日,深圳全市售出51套新房住宅,成交均价为91965元/平,突破9万大关。

但值得注意的是,这一高均价的出现是因为高端楼盘海上世界双玺项目的入市。不过,据深圳市规划和国土资源委员会2月1日发布的数据显示,1月深圳新房成交均价达46515元/平米,同比涨幅为74%。

易居研究院近日发布的一项调研显示,2015年房价暴涨的深圳,房价收入比已经高达25.8,位列全国之首,同比增幅达27.6%,而全国的平均值为7.2。易居研究院研究员曹倪娜称:“深圳已经出现短期泡沫。”

仅有广州仍保持“温和”状态。数据显示,春节后首周广州共网签新建住宅822套,处在周成交低位,均价仅在16883元/平米。

除了房价上涨,一线城市的土地市场升温也在春节后持续。2月23日,北京年后的首场土地拍卖在大兴区拍出楼面价达4.7万的新地王。中原地产首席分析师张大伟测算,未来房价将在10万/平米以上。而目前,同一区域普通住宅售价最高的项目均价仅在4.5万。

新一轮政策宽松无视一线城市

新的一年开始后,高层去库存政策进一步推出,多个二三线城市出台宽松政策。但一线城市的火爆,与近期的全国性政策利好似乎并无太大关联。

央行的首付20%新政,执行限购的一线城市并不在其影响之列;而财政部自2月22日实施的“房地产交易环节契税、营业税优惠”政策,北上广深仅适用于“对个人购买家庭唯一住房面积为90平方米及以下的,减按1%的税率征收契税,面积为90平方米以上的,减按1.5%的税率征收契税”。

实际上,一线城市仅购买144平米以上的首套房,将享受到税费减半的优惠。众多业内人士指出,仅此一条利好,所影响的房屋结构只是少数,对一线城市的作用并不明显。

反之,在其他城市纷纷放松调控去库存之际,为了应对高房价的一线城市在释放调控收紧的信号。

雷声最大的是深圳。近几日,包括地产商、银行人士等在内的多方信源均指出,从3月1日起,深圳将很可能执行新政,非深户籍者购房需缴纳的社保年数从此前的1年调整为3年。一位开发商人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,“1改3”的政策已经是八九不离十了。对比其它一线城市,深圳对非户籍人口的限制是最宽松的,改变也在意料之中。

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