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春节后一线城市楼市火爆 未来调控政策或收紧

2016-02-24 08:29:18   21世纪经济报道

深圳市规土委此前对媒体回应称,目前政策正在研究之中,还没有收到正式通知。银行人士则表示,暂未收到通知,但已在加紧审批非深户资料了。

此前,官方已经释放出了“调控”信号。2月4日,深圳市长许勤在市人大会议的记者会上指出,为把房价稳定在合理区间,深圳“正在研究调控政策”。

另一方面,针对深圳楼市广被质疑的“中介炒房”之风,深圳市房地产经纪行业协会已在近日发文,严令禁止。

而上海市政府则在近日印发《关于进一步优化本市土地和住房供应结构的实施意见》的通知。通知指出,要优化住房供地结构,增加中小套型住房供应比例,中心城区不低于70%,郊区不低于60%(部分供需矛盾突出的区域,提高至70%)。这被很多业内人士解读为上海楼市调控收紧的信号。

同策咨询研究部总监张宏伟分析,现在增加市场供应的方法就是把户型做小,从而增加套数。客观上,这一调整也会起到控制房屋总价的效果。

早在四季度工作会议上,上海市委书记韩正明确表示,上海楼市存在结构性问题,要把控制房价作为重要调控目标。此外,上海市发改委和房管局的领导亦指出,要严防房价过快上涨,并严格执行限购、二套房政策。

上海一位房地产咨询人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,据房管局内部人士透露,年后二套房贷将会收紧。

一线城市房价会调整吗?

即使是在政策风声之前,部分业内人士已经开始看空深圳房价,他们预计,2016年深圳房价将迎来调整。

易居(中国)控股有限公司执行总裁丁祖昱指出,在投机炒房推波助澜之下,购买力和房价之间已经产生明显断层,再加上资本市场利好在2016年难以重现,所以对2016年深圳房价不能预期太高,特别是部分房价上涨过快的高端项目,可能会存在一定压力。

美联物业则指出,政策如果落地,拥有购房资格的人士将缩减,并将引起市场观望情绪,成交量会下降,这一时效估计在半年左右。事实上,深圳这一轮的房价上涨,与“投资客”盛行不无关联。有数据显示,深圳的投资投机需求占比超过三成,甚至部分区域超过五成。

易居研究院副院长杨红旭,更是在“看跌”深圳房价。杨红旭表示,“此政出后,观察市场反应,可能将深圳房价下跌预警等级,由黄色升级为橙色。”

此前,针对深圳楼市的疯狂,杨红旭就已经建议升级限购,除延长纳税时间外,还可采用提高二套房贷利率,将二手房转让的个人所得税严格按差额的20%征收。

但对于上海的后市走向,舆论一般较为偏向“上涨”。

丁祖昱指出,2016年的上海房地产市场仍将保持稳定发展的态势,再上台阶难度较大,但往下调整空间也不大,从成交量看上下也就5%-10%浮动空间;房价还会稳步攀升,不过由于2015年上升幅度较大,今年的涨幅会放缓。

杨红旭从数据的角度给出了预测。按近几年的惯例,上海住宅存销比一旦降至14个月以下,房价就会上涨;反之则容易下跌。当前的存销比已是8个月左右,为2013年低点,因此房价甚至会加速上涨。

张宏伟则指出,2015年“330新政”以来,大中城市房地产市场成交量价回升主要是因为过去积压需求的集中释放,以及由于需求的集中释放而带来的市场需求的透支,但未来楼市不会一直保持这样的走势。

“一线城市楼市的量价齐升最多持续到今年上半年,下半年,新一轮的房地产市场调整极有可能会来临。”张宏伟说。

责任编辑:赵逸 CN039
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