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可悲!印度变成了美日的一杆枪,却不明白这是自残

2017-08-11 13:33:16   瞭望智库

关于中印两国的军事力量、综合国力、GDP总量对比,各大媒体已经做了相当多的报道。但是,这些纸面上的数字并不足以解释战争的胜负,政治环境、气候条件、地形因素、指挥统帅机制、军事力量对比才是决定军事行动胜负的关键因素,发达的公路、铁路网和完整的工业体系更是必不可少。

这些,印度有吗? 

1,印度为何敢叫嚣“两线半”作战? 

印度主要领土两面临海,只有北对中国,西向巴基斯坦被其视为对手,中印之间存在着尼泊尔和不丹两个国家。考虑中国的一向政治风格,也不存在“借路”的风险。

因此,印度可以将大约45%的陆军和空军力量部署在西方面对巴基斯坦(同时面对中印边界西段争议地区),将30%以上部队部署在中印边界东段争议区。综合考虑,印度大约可以动用50%以上的兵力来直接用于跟中国的冲突。

中国的武装力量虽然位居世界第三位,从纸面上看对印度的优势也并不大。印度官员认为,中国国土广袤,需要防卫的方向更多,必然会将部队分散部署,而面对印度时候很难集中起来压倒性优势兵力,加之前述自然条件带来的影响,真正能用于作战的部队可能会反而少于印度。

因此,印陆军参谋长才敢叫嚣“印度不介意进行2.5线战争”——同时对中巴开战,并且还能有效应对国内反政府武装。

就目前形势来看,不能说印度的这种判断是错误的。

印度在锡金方向和东线争议地区集中了4个军和一个正在建设中的军,约21万人,大约编成了9个山地师、1个步兵师、1个炮兵旅和1个装甲团。

除了专门针对中国的第17山地作战军尚在组建当中,第59山地师以及第72山地师目前约3万人,未来两年计划增加到9万以上。

锡金方向的第33军下辖第17、20和27山地师,总兵力约6万至7万,早已在锡金周边部署多年。

印占藏南地区,在达旺方向上部署的第4军下辖第2、5和21山地师之外,更是编有第21炮兵旅和第45装甲团,总兵力约5万人。

在中印缅三国交界地带附近的第3军下属第23步兵师和第57山地师,兵力约3万人,被视为东段对华作战的预备力量。

印度正在组建一个部署于东线的炮兵师,除了使用现有装备的FH77B型榴弹炮,也已经确定引进大量美制超轻型的XM333榴弹炮,未来的印军对华作战骨干火力将由这批155毫米的榴弹炮承担。

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