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官媒喊话新加坡:南海水太深 你就不要瞎搅和了

2016-09-29 07:09:41   侠客岛

说起来,新加坡并非南海争议相关方,近年来却不遗余力的推动南海问题多边化与国际化,甚至比部分争议方都要积极,且在建设基于国际规则(Based on rule of law)的海洋秩序方面与美国、日本等国共同点很多,频频遥相呼应、彼此附和。问题是,新加坡在南海既不争地,也不争水,到底图什么?

【解局】南海水太深,新加坡你就不要瞎搅和了1

动机

首先,南海议题对于新加坡的唯一可能的价值在于提升自身软实力和国际影响力。

新加坡国虽小,但软实力强大,自视甚高,是东南亚地区搞大国平衡、推动东盟联合自强的中坚力量。新加坡一直批评部分域外国家在南海问题上撕裂东盟,极力推进东盟在南海议题上集体发声。如果东盟共识关于南海的共识成为不结盟运动的共识,那将是新加坡和东盟外交的巨大成功。

换句话说,南海议题之于新加坡,绝对是一个重要的外交机会,它希望在该议题上发挥出自己的独到魅力,推动自己的主张变成东盟的主张,然后变成世界的。

此外,新加坡虽是亚洲国家,但“国际范”和“西方范”十足,喜欢充当教师爷,一度曾在海峡两岸、东南亚、亚洲乃至全世界“黑白通吃”、左右逢源,上世纪70至80年代,邓小平还曾多次就中国的对外开放及东南亚政策向新加坡前总理李光耀郑重咨询过建议。面对波诡云谲的南海局势,以新加坡的个性和利益算计,要不说三道四都显得不正常。

其次,新加坡在安全上与美国等国有着很强的亲近感,在南海问题上很容易跟着美国走。新加坡笃信远交近攻,自独立以来,在安全上对马来西亚、印尼等东南亚国家统统不放心,对中国不放心,只对美国放心,认为美国在东南亚地区的军事存在不可或缺,它可能是东南亚地区最欢迎美国“亚太再平衡”战略的国家。

对于菲律宾、越南等国而言,在安全上与美国走近是权力政治或权益之计的考虑,而新加坡加强与美国的安全联系,很大程度上则是出于安全的信仰和价值观。在新加坡看来,中国的和平崛起尚不确定,在安全上对地区的贡献还没有得到检验,只有美国可以确保该地区的秩序,也只能美国可以平衡中国的力量。

因此,即便新加坡并不面临着和切实棘手的安全威胁,它从心理上也觉得在安全上需要美国。有了这样的几乎等同于信仰的安全观,新加坡在南海议题上附和美国牵制中国也就不难理解了。

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