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日本人绘制的世界地图
如果中国试图从英国、美国和日本崛起的历史中寻找灵感,那么过去这些国家的崛起模式将重现,武力冲突或将不可避免。有人说,过去发生冲突是时代的原因,今天我们有许多国际组织——例如联合国——和国际准则来避免战争。但我认为这是站不住脚的,2003年英美入侵伊拉克就明显违反了国际规约,联合国对此也无可奈何。
大国,似乎天生是不在意什么规则的。
因此,我一再强调,如果我们不关心历史,我们就无法理解当下的现实,更不能预见未来。而关心历史,离不开持续的对话。
我们可以邀请来自昔日大国(尤其是英国、美国和日本),以及东南亚和中国的思想领袖们和历史学家们,建立一个论坛或讨论平台。这或许能使各国迈出增信释疑的第一步。
讨论的主题主要包括如何从过去的历史经验吸取教训,如何避免以战争促崛起的模式再现,以及这些历史经验如何助力未来政策的制定等。会议的进展和结论都将提交给相关国家的政府首脑和政策制定者们。
对话当然不可能一蹴而就,它需要时间来逐渐克服各国之间的猜忌。但是,正如丘吉尔的一句名言:“吵吵总比打打好”。
在过去的500年里,西方主导了这个世界。日本崛起的时候,它没有选择与西方冲突,而是选择与西方的既有大国结成盟友——先是大英帝国(1902年至1922年),再是纳粹德国(20世纪30年代至40年代),最后是超级大国美国(二战后)。
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