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分析师称国际原油难熬过60美元

2017-10-12 09:22:55   

虽然近期油价频频在60美元/桶一线遇到阻力,但有大胆的投资者已经布局100美元/桶的多单。相关数据显示,截至10月4日当周,原油市场上,2018年12月到期、履约价为每桶100美元的原油买权(call),未平仓手数( open interest)一周内狂飙至11477手,目前交易最热络的选择权合约,是2017年12月到期、履约价60美元的原油买权持仓超6万手。

也就是说,大量的投资者看好原油将攻破60美元/桶一线,甚至有投资者认为原油涨到100美元每桶不是梦。一根K线改三观,要知道,自从2014年7月原油大跌,至2016年崩盘跌至每桶30美元后,已经鲜有人相信原油价格会重新回到100美元以上。

乐观情绪水分有多大

就今年四季度来看,黄李强认为,原油将延续强势,不过上行的空间不大,或将改为偏震荡的走势。一方面,OPEC为了其自身利益,大概率延续减产,这将支撑原油价格;美国加息进程放缓,美元走弱,支撑商品价格;另外,进入冬季,取暖油消费旺季来临,进一步缓解供需失衡的问题。但另一方面,随着原油价格走高,美国页岩油产量或将进一步上升,这反过来将限制原油价格涨幅。此外,一旦原油价格大幅上涨,OPEC内部也可能会有成员国私自增产,这也决定了原油价格难以持续上涨。

陈通表示,从静态平衡表上来看,四季度油市仍将延续去库存进程。目前WTI远月价格被压制在52美元/桶的页岩油边际成本附近,按照四季度末OECD石油库存回落至5年均值水平的乐观估计,WTI近月价格将能升水远月价格5%-10%,仍难以突破60美元/桶。

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