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钢铁煤炭造纸等原来去产能的重要领域,不断传来业绩向好的消息。如果这类消息继续在扩大和持续,去产能已经取得一定成效的看法会占上风。在整体经济不断向好的大背景下,对资源类和周期性产品的需求逐渐增加,价格也随之恢复和上涨。但是,现在就判断去产能可以“鸣金收兵”,似乎还言之过早,对具体情况还是要做具体分析。上述数字仅仅是一部分上市公司的数字,不能代表全部上市公司,更不能代表行业内多数企业的经营状况。目前,这些行业的产能状况、业绩状况、价格趋势等,还需要有更准确的数据和更可靠的市场信号,避免因季节性因素、临时供求关系调整等原因导致的价格暴涨,引起对产能规模的误解,造成产业发展中的一些错觉。况且,还有相当部分的产能是在“冬眠”,而不是被去除;一旦去产能警报解除,会立刻卷土重来,这种负面影响是不能低估的。
上市公司偏爱理财成业绩支柱受质疑
据媒体报道,越来越多的上市公司投身“理财大军”,利用闲置资金购买理财产品。然而理财热之下,却存在不少怪象,如部分公司理财产品收益高于今年上半年净利润;部分公司一边喊穷,抛出定增方案向市场融资,一边却将巨额资金用来购买理财产品。今年以来,市场资金面相对紧张,而在此期间,各类货币基金、银行理财产品的年收益率水平也出现了水涨船高的迹象。在房地产面临调控升级、股票市场不确定因素较多、实体经济回暖态势有待确认诸多背景下,通过购买银行理财产品,成为不少投资者处理闲置资金获得稳健投资回报的重要选择。然而,在实际情况下,上市公司购买理财产品的热情并不逊色于普通投资者。以认购日期计算,截至9月22日,24家上市公司年内认购金额累计达到40亿元以上,其中新湖中宝累计认购金额高达200.73亿元居首,其累计持有的理财产品高达74个。
据报道,上述理财行为从资金的来源来看,约6500份理财产品的公告指出资金属于自有资金;另外约5200多份理财产品的资金含有募集资金。如果不从“道德”角度出发,只要资金来源合法合规,决策程序合法合规,并能合理权衡主业发展的需要,上市公司投资理财产品并不是很大的问题。一些主营业务亏损的“僵尸股”过往靠政府补助、变卖资产输血,如今 靠“炒股炒房买理财”来扭亏,似乎还是个进步。但是千万不要为此喝彩,这里至少暴露了几个问题:一是主营业务实在不佳,短时期难以扭亏,或是有很大的效益;二是实体经济远不如虚拟经济来钱快;三是真正的转型不容易,远不如打一枪换一个地方的理财炒作更实际。适当理财不无收益,可以理解,但是一个上市公司主要利润或大部分利润都来源于此,值得认真研究。
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