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直线是库存的0线,表示在线上都是库存增加,线以下都是库存减产,不具体考虑变化的量。从上图可以看出,2011—2014年年中MV4的趋势是区间振荡,这也导致库存增加或减少。不过,MV4价差和库存的变化情况还是有几处明显的背离关系,用圆圈标出了。特别要注意的是,曲线背离关系不能完全解释价差与库存变化,要看到价差的位置和观察库存变化是否处于0点以上。
综合来看,库存上涨对应的价差均值为1.1。
这里上涨的主要原因是下游刚性需求增长,还有一些政策购买计划等。当然,库存上涨的次数相对C结构下的次数就少了很多。特别在行情波动下的市场,大家对方向把握不准,进货的情绪会比较保守。同样为了更好地量化多大的价差才能导致库存增加,我们利用库存上涨对应的价差平均值来作为指标,来回测是否可以得出库存增加。
数据统计结果显示,当MV4小于等于1.1时候,对应101个周。在这101个里面,有46个周变化是正值。这也就是说,我们如果利用1.1作为分界点来猜测库存变化,大概45%的概率会出现库存增加,与之前的73%有了很明显的对比。
第三阶段(2008—2010年):C结构
2008—2010年的结构属于C结构,这里分为两个阶段:第一阶段是急速跳水,让曲线结构从B到C;随后进入振荡上涨阶段,曲线C结构在慢慢走弱,转向B结构的趋势。
前一阶段的快速下降,让库存增加速度和量都维持高位,但随后的振荡上涨阶段,让价差也呈现上涨后振荡的趋势,价差缩小,导致利润下降,库存的变化也小幅上涨或下降。C结构的价差均值约为-1.9。
图为2008—2010年Brent价格走势
图为2008—2010年原油价差变化
数据统计结果显示,当MV4小于等于-1.9时候,对应42个周,在这42个周里面,有34个周变化是正值。这也就是说,我们如果利用-1.9作为分界点来猜测库存变化,大概81%的概率会出现库存增加。但值得注意的是,出现增长的34个周里面,大部分集中在2008年,2009—2010年的C结构走向B结构的趋势导致库存变化出现不确定。
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