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图为2014年年中—2017年MV4变化
这个时期的结构是升水结构,也叫C结构。期货的单边趋势可以细分四个阶段:首先是急速跳水阶段,让曲线结构从B到C;接着是振荡下调阶段,曲线结构维持较好的C结构,且保持不错的升水程度;随后,小幅回弹阶段,曲线结构被迅速拉平,但依旧保持C结构;最后,小幅回调后的低幅度振荡阶段,在C结构的情况下,价差的波动增大。
从曲线结构可以看出,价差的敏感性随着期货价格的变化迅速反应,简单来说就是,前月的波动和反应加剧,后月的反应有一定的滞后,波动较小。
图为2014年年中—2017年原油价差变化
直线是库存的0线,表示在线上都是库存增加,线下都是库存减少,不具体考虑变化的量。从这张图可以看出,自2014年价差急速跳水,库存就一直保持增长的水平,直到2016年5月,价差出现上涨,库存反应较慢,但后来也是快速减少。随后的价差和库存的变化就保持很好的负相关。为了更好地量化多大的价差才能导致库存增加,我们利用库存上涨对应的价差平均值来作为指标,来回测是否可以得出库存增加。
数据统计结果显示,当MV4小于等于-1.2时候,对应周数有55个,在这55个里面,有40个周变化是正值。也就是说,如果利用-1.2作为分界点来猜测库存变化,大概73%的概率会出现库存增加。
第二阶段(2011—2014年年中):B结构
2011—2014年年中曲线结构处于B阶段。细分为两段:首先是2011—2012年B结构,单边振荡走低,91个数据中,52个为上涨;之后是2013—2014年B结构,区域振荡,79个数据里面,38个为上涨。
图为2011—2014年年中Brent价格走势
图为2011—2014年年中原油价差变化
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