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44城住宅限售加码调控 封堵炒房客意在去杠杆

2017-09-26 07:33:01   中国经济网

封堵炒房客

在张宏伟看来,“加杠杆”入市的“散户”高位入市,将面临房产贬值压力。他认为,这一轮楼市“全民炒房”局面的出现和“散户”入市密不可分。他们拿出压箱底的资金入市,不顾一切投资买房,氛围就像大妈买黄金炒股,甚至有部分“散户”加杠杆操作投资。毫无疑问,当2017年下半年市场调整期来临之时,也是这部分“散户”无法承受房价止涨甚至下跌、加杠杆的资金成本等压力之时(加杠杆资金的期限一般为12个月左右,少部分24个月,今年下半年刚好是去年上半年加杠杆入市资金到期的日子),届时,去年上半年以来加杠杆入市的“散户”开始面临资产贬值的压力,下半年将会出现抛售资产的状况。

此外,运营状况不佳的私营企业主可能舍卒保车,抛售一部分前期投资的房产,缓解企业运营压力。 另外一些换房、海外移民等特定人群可能会通过抛售置换资产配置。

值得关注的是,张宏伟认为,限售一来,对上述“加杠杆”投资投机客来讲,即使遭遇资产缩水的状况也不能用“快进快出”的方法解决资金需求问题,房产成为真正意义的“不动产”。而对于银行来说,锁定2016年下半年以来处于高位的房贷资产,不让它交易,不让它出现贬值,防止由于房价下降而带来的银行系统性金融风险,这样银行这端因为“限售”暂时处于安全地位。

《证券日报》记者也注意到,据德意志银行统计,整个中国房地产资金体量高达30万亿美元,仅一、二线城市的房地产价值因房价上升而产生的财富增值是24万亿元,为2016年全国个人可支配收入总量的75%。

如此巨量的资金进入房地产领域,防止系统性金融风险和资产泡沫已经是房地产调控长效机制要解决的问题,稳定房价的重要性也可见一斑。

更重要的是,稳定房价之后,接下来则是房地产调控的长效机制上台,届时,高房价、高地价、炒房、蜗居,买不起房等市场痛点或许会得到缓解。

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