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银行理财规模半年缩水6700亿 “去同业化”将持续

2017-09-26 07:17:54   中国经济网

“部分银行理财规模将压缩”

上述报告显示,2017年上半年,已终止的封闭式理财产品收益率呈现出上升趋势,从年初的平均3.5%左右上升至平均4.0%左右。而兴业研究分析师孔祥、吕爽指出,2017年上半年,理财产品累计兑付收益5672亿元,同比上升20%(理财规模同比上升8%)。

周冠南指出,一方面由于资产端收益率上行,客户对理财收益提出了更高的要求;另一方面部分银行为了维系亏损的同业链条需要保证负债端稳定,理财供需平衡被打破,理财成本刚性的情况将继续维持。

展望未来理财规模增速,孔祥、吕爽分析,前期中小银行的理财增速远高于五大行,这成为前期规模增长的主力军。2017年上半年,上述银行的理财增速延续2016年的放缓趋势,部分银行的理财规模较年初压缩。预计2017年下半年,中小银行的理财增速仍将放缓,部分银行的理财规模将继续压缩。

2017年表外理财纳入MPA广义信贷增速进行统一管理,同时在打击理财空转的监管环境下,理财产品进行委外的情况有所放缓,理财配置债券规模下降。周冠南预计,这一趋势在金融去杠杆的大环境下仍将继续延续。

具体到债市供需层面,周冠南分析,作为过去两年债券市场最大的“买家”银行,无论是表外理财还是表内资产都难以为债市提供趋势性下行所需要的配置力量。

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