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人民币越来越有“国际范儿”

2017-09-25 07:16:53   中国经济网

据环球同业银行金融电讯协会(SWIFT)统计,截至今年6月份,人民币是全球第六大支付货币(占比1.9%)、第三大贸易融资货币、第五大外汇交易货币。全球有超过1900家金融机构使用人民币作为支付货币。约有56个境外央行和货币当局在中国境内持有人民币金融资产并纳入其外汇储备。

在金融对外开放方面,今年上半年,债券通、A 股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数等实现顺利推进。而在此之前的债券市场对外开放,QFII、RQFII、沪港通、深港通等相继推出,也在人民币国际化的进程中发挥了重要作用。正是包括人民币跨境贸易结算在内的一系列举措,将人民币国际化诸多“不可能的事”一一变为可能。

汇率形成机制更加完善

促经常项下支付结算上升

今年以来,人民币对美元汇率整体呈升值态势,累计升值近6%;对一篮子货币汇率基本稳定。对此,连平认为,人民币汇率升值提高了境外投资者持有人民币的积极性,促使我国经常项下贸易支付结算明显上升。

近日,中国人民银行将外汇风险准备金征收比例降为零,并取消对境外金融机构境内存放准备金的穿透式管理。

联讯证券董事总经理、首席宏观研究员李奇霖对《证券日报》记者表示,将外汇风险准备金率调整为零,本身就释放出央行稳定人民币汇率的信号。按照8月份远期售汇签约额75亿美元计算,准备金率的调整将给银行节省15亿美元的头寸与相应的融资成本。“预计未来人民币继续维持如此迅猛升势的概率较小。”

在汇率形成机制改革方面,今年第二季度,人民币对美元汇率中间价报价机制进一步完善,在原有“收盘价+一篮子货币汇率变化”的报价模型中加入“逆周期因子”。

对此,中银香港首席经济学家、中国人民大学国际货币所学术委员鄂志寰认为,此举可以增加汇率灵活性、扭转人民币贬值预期。央行推出逆周期因子调控以来,人民币汇率波幅扩大、灵活性增强,预计年内人民币汇率将保持双向波动、大体稳定的态势。

2017年2月份,外汇市场自律机制将中间价对一篮子货币的参考时段由报价前24小时调整为前一日收盘后到报价前的15小时,避免了美元汇率日间变化在次日中间价中重复反映,在稳定汇率预期方面发挥了积极作用。

连平表示,未来外汇市场投资者的构成还须进一步放宽,引进更多的境外机构投资者,实现结构的更加多元化。

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