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混改炒作退潮 中国联通被“打回原形”

2017-09-19 17:36:56   中国经济网

但投资者最为关注的还是经营情况的实质性改变,特别是相对于中国移动和中国电信较为羸弱的移动通信业务。在公布的混改方案中,中国联通明确表示将积极部署5G网络,2017年至2019年5G项目投资额分别为1亿元、80亿元和190亿元,但过去几周仍然未见中国联通披露具体的行动方案。

财经评论员皮海洲认为,尽管中国联通的混改将BATJ这些民营企业的大佬悉数捆绑了进来,但这些大佬能够为中国联通带来多大的变化还是一个未知数,毕竟这些大佬持有中国联通的股份数量有限。在BATJ中,持股量最大的是腾讯信达,持股比例为5.18%,百度鹏寰、京东三弘、阿里创投的持股比例分别为3.30%、2.36%、2.04%,基本上可以算是“友情参与”,以示对中国联通混改的支持。但最终能给中国联通带来多少变化,就很难说了。毕竟在与中国移动、中国电信的竞争中,中国联通的劣势是非常明显的。

另外,进入2017年后,A股市场也变了天,概念炒作难以为继,有实实在在业绩支撑的公司得到了市场的青睐,业绩为王的时代来临了,混改的效果能否立竿见影是影响中国联通股价走势的重要因素。

对增发的担忧

此外,有分析人士认为,中国联通增发定价方式反而成为限制其股价上涨的“地心引力”。根据证监会的相关规定,长期停牌上市公司进行资产重组时不得直接确定发行价格,要求复牌后至少20个交易日后再确定非公开基准日和底价。但中国联通并没有遵循这样的定价原则,而是将增发价格直接锁定为每股6.83元。这也意味着中国联通的增发并非市价发行,这就给了定向增发的参与者以套利空间。

皮海洲认为,股价炒得越高,那么中国联通定向增发的股份将来套利的空间越大,投资者为中国联通混改付出的代价就越大。因此,为了少付出代价,当然是中国联通的股价越低越接近增发价格越好。否则将中国联通的股价炒得高高的,只会让二级市场的投资者为中国联通的混改付出更大的代价。

此外,中国联通混改后总股本大幅增加也是一颗定时炸弹,特别是未来持股占总股本不足5%的股东的行为。根据中国联通公布的混改方案,将向战略投资者非公开发行90.37亿股股份,占公司总股本的42.63%,这一比例超过了现行制度所要求的“拟发行的股份数量不得超过本次发行前总股本的20%”的规定。

证监会此前明确中国联通混改方案涉及再融资事项适用再融资老办法一事,新闻发言人表示,中国联通混改对深化央企改革有先行先试的重大意义,2月17日再融资政策调整以前,中国联通已经在相关部门的指导下制定了混改方案,证监会经过与相关部委会商,在履行法定程序后,同意中国联通混改相关再融资事项适用老方法。

但是,中国联通混改在涉及非公开发行事宜上“特批”的做法也让投资者多少感到不安。

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