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炒作降温 混改概念还有戏吗?

2017-09-17 08:06:38   中国经济网

宝钢股份就是一个典型的案例。在年初吸收合并武钢股份之后,宝钢股份在2月27日复牌当天放量大涨7.5%,此后便陷入了持续调整,波段最大跌幅23%;5月中旬之后,宝钢的股价则展开第二波上攻,3个月内股价上涨了56%,远超2月27日的高点,强劲走势背后反映的正是公司和行业同步改善的基本面(见图2)。因此,近期复牌的这些混改概念股,题材刺激带来的第一波行情已经结束,接下来能否展开力度更大的第二波行情,不取决题材面,而要看基本面。

既然目前市场的资金面不支持混改概念股全面炒作,那么投资者追高买入此类品种需要十分谨慎。在操作上,提前布局等待题材兑现是比较好的选择,复牌之后暴涨买入,遭遇一段时间的套牢风险还是比较大的。

选择布局的品种,笔者比较看好小市值、大股东的潜力股。经过上半年的持续下跌,小市值股票的风险已经得到了较大的释放,与此同时大盘股走势较强,二者之间形成一定的“剪刀差”,小市值股票本身就具备较好的补涨潜力和弹性。重点可以关注一些大股东实力雄厚、存在较强混改预期的品种,如:龙源技术、岳阳兴长、蓝科高新、瑞泰科技、金自天正、中原特钢、株冶集团等。

另一方面,对于已经公布重组方案,但股价表现平平的股票,未来也有望随着重组进度的展开走出新一波行情。最典型如“中材系”旗下的小市值公司,未来有望出现借壳、重组的预期,带动股价反复走高,可关注:宁夏建材、国统股份等。

(文中涉及股票,只做举例,不做买入推荐。且作者承诺未持有文中提及股票)

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