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央行调整两大政策 专家建议把握汇改窗口机遇

2017-09-16 10:26:41   央广网

“选择在现今时点调整是因为考虑到当前市场环境已发生较大变化,人民币现在面临升值压力,政策有必要进行调整。”对于这两项政策的调整,瑞穗证券亚洲公司董事总经理、首席经济学家沈建光对记者分析称,今年中国GDP增长有望达到6.8%,远超政府年初制定的目标;再加上美元仍处于弱势。

据他介绍,原本,实行外汇风险准备金征收和境外金融机构境内存放准备金的穿透式管理,是在人民币贬值压力下出台的“危机管理”式措施。由于固定汇率制的实质存在,导致人民币在美元不断升值的情况下面临较大贬值压力,2015年下半年开始,人民币成为全球汇率做空的主要对象,再加上中国经济也存在下行压力,令市场对增长缺乏信心,导致资金外流。在这样的背景下出台的调控措施更像是“危机管理”的过渡性政策。

官方也认为政策有调整的必要。孙国峰指出,当前,无论是学界还是业界都普遍认为人民币汇率已比较充分地反映了经济基本面,汇率总体处于合理均衡的水平。在人民币汇率水平趋于均衡的同时,市场预期趋于理性,跨境资本流动和外汇供求都更加平衡。

由此他表示,在市场环境已转向中性的情况下,有必要调整前期为抑制外汇市场顺周期波动而出台的逆周期宏观审慎管理措施,也相应回归中性,以强化外汇市场价格发现功能,提高市场流动性,更好地服务于实体经济,促进经济持续、协调、平稳发展。

受访专家认为,政策调整利好企业。“将外汇风险准备金率调整为0,本身就释放出央行稳定人民币汇率的信号,而其实际作用是有利于降低企业的远期购汇成本。”李奇霖说。

外汇风险准备金率降至零的消息传出,人民币出现大跌。随后的9月14日,人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.5465,下调83基点,这是连续三个交易日下调,累计调贬468基点。

这是否意味着换汇窗口期已打开,有美元需求的企业可在当前换汇? 李奇霖向记者表示,“事实上,最佳的换汇窗口已经过去,现在人民币开始贬值一方面是因为受央行调整外汇风险准备金释放出的信号影响,另一方面是美元在特朗普税改政策取得较大进展后反弹所致。在过去升值预期有所逆转及美元短期反弹的作用下,外汇市场容易出现集中做空的羊群行为,短期内贬势还会持续,有换汇需求的可以现在出手。”

但他同时指出,从中长期来看,基本面与货币政策等因素决定了未来人民币仍会处于比较强的水平,但双向波动的特征更为明显,大幅贬值或大幅升值的可能性都不高。

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