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机构乐观期待“金九银十”
2017-09-11 09:12:39 中国经济网
与此同时,锂电池、次新股、低位的创业板蓝筹股则是呈资金明显流入状态。尤其创业板中,在部分低位、业绩良好的权重股十大股东里,纷纷见到证金、汇金、社保基金身影。由此可见,近期个股此起彼伏的大幅波动,正是资金完成了一次比较明显的调仓动作,市场热点正进行新的风格切换。
“这轮创业板行情开始于7月底部分公司十大股东出现证金等机构之后,市场对创业板的担忧转为了跟随国家队资金进行掘金;而且相比于周期股高位的情况来说,反而中小创的业绩成长性和估值水平更具有吸引力。”一位机构人士表示。
●机构看好“金九银十”行情
有券商根据A股历史数据统计,近十年A股在9月份的表现“涨多跌少”,上证综指、中小板、创业板指除2008、2011、2016年,其余的7年均是齐涨或结构性上涨。今年的“金九银十”行情是否值得期待,机构普遍持乐观态度。
中信建投分析师黄文涛分析指出,未来牛市行情有望延续,看多的原因主要有:一是经济下行风险可控,8月制造业PMI较7月回升0.3%至51.7%,生产、需求进一步扩张,企业库存有所下降;二是由于美国经济走弱、人民币升值带来的新兴市场溢价,境外资金的涌入将会为股市增加流动性;三是领涨的周期股是有业绩支撑的,煤炭、钢铁等产品价格的上行持续性超出了市场预期。
“考虑到目前市场存量资金充裕,赚钱效应持续,仍需积极关注结构性投资机会。在板块上,比较看好景气趋势向上的电子、新能源汽车等行业,以及业绩持续增长、估值已经部分消化的优质成长股。此外,消费领域业绩增长稳健,临近年底存在估值切换的投资机会。不过,周期股方面,部分企业盈利较好,存在一定机会,但前期股价涨幅较大,需要谨慎操作,精选个股。”华夏基金首席策略分析师轩伟认为。
格雷资产总经理张可兴也表示,看好“金九”主要源于有基本面的支撑,经济数据比市场预期要好;同时,周期股环比业绩改善幅度较大;再加上十九大即将召开,政策稳定预期较强等原因。
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