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业内人士热议房地产“金九银十”有没有?

2017-09-09 07:06:43   中国经济网

■本报见习记者 杜雨萌

尽管楼市成交量还在低位徘徊,但银行贷款额度仍持续紧张,从整个8月份来看,全国首套房房贷平均利率再创新高。据融360大数据研究院选取的66家银行位于全国35个重点城市的533家支行数据显示,8月份全国首套房贷款平均利率为5.12%,相当于基准利率1.04倍,环比上升2.47%,同比上升15.35%。

“从全国来看,目前首套房利率主要集中在基准上浮5%-10%的水平,当上浮情况相继落地各城市后,利率将会趋于平稳状态。受市场调节以及供求形势的变化,预计房贷利率暂时不会再度出现大幅上升的情况。”融360分析分析师昨日告诉《证券日报》记者,若在无明确指导政策规定的情况下,首套利率过度上浮亦是不合理的,将会在一定程度上破坏市场平衡,引发市场新的不良反应。

易居研究院研究员赖勤昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,8月份市场延续降温态势,一方面“五限”的严厉政策管控,引导此前过热的楼市回归正常,并且楼市调控政策没有明显放松迹象;另一方面,以房贷利率上浮为代表的金融环境收紧,也使得成交量受到影响。预计9月份市场交易继续趋弱,传统的“金九银十”盛况难再。

但在太平洋证券房地产行业分析师周炯看来,今年楼市“金九银十”并不悲观。

周炯认为,对于一二线城市来说,目前影响销量最大的因素仍然是供应量,即房企的推货量,而需求端依然强劲,且供求矛盾突出。虽然受制于限价政策调控影响房企获取预售证仍存难度,但大部分主要布局于一二线城市的房企,或迫于上市公司业绩压力,或迫于自身现金流压力,都将主动增加推盘,因此,一二线楼市的成交量将获得一定支撑;对于三四线城市来说,这轮主要受益于一二线需求外溢的成交高峰,在一二线城市政策暂时不会放松的背景下,仍将持续一段时间。也就是说,楼市“金九银十”期间仍能获得成交量的支撑。

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