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强者恒强 布局稀土龙头正当时
2017-09-11 07:47:38 中国经济网
目前,风力发电领域基本呈现递增趋势,2016年对钕铁硼的需求达到4053吨。新能源汽车发展在本世纪列入国家重点发展规划之中。随着国家各种扶持政策出台,新能源汽车得到了很大发展,到2016年我国新能源汽车产量达到51.7万辆,年均增长率为104%。统计数据显示,2013年-2015年新能源汽车的年均增长率高达209%。新能源汽车领域对钕铁硼的需求从2010年的21.6吨增长到2016年的1551吨。节能空调市场2016年意外下降,但总体保持上升趋势不变。如果变频空调全部采用钕铁硼材料,那么对钕铁硼的需求可达万吨;节能电器对钕铁硼需求持续增长,2016年需求为4080吨。其中,节能电梯未来市场需求主要来自新增需求量、旧电梯的改造和节能改造。
国泰君安分析师刘华锋表示,此轮稀土涨价是行业长期的改善,稀土价格已经逐渐向钕铁硼下游传导,磁材公司将逐步受益于稀土价格上涨之后的单吨产品毛利规模的增加。同时,钕铁硼龙头企业凭借自身的竞争优势,将逐步抢占小企业的市场以及瓜分新能源汽车带来的磁材的新增长。
刘华锋预计,本轮稀土价格上涨后,磁材企业将从今年三季度起逐步释放业绩。本轮稀土价格自年初起缓慢上涨,6-7月开始逐步加速上涨,本轮稀土行业景气度将长期改善,而非如2011年急涨急跌,磁材的利润空间将是长久性的改善。
在此轮稀土行情中,多数机构分析师认为,龙头企业规模效应强于小企业,强者恒强现象将持续。一方面,大型钕铁硼企业普遍产能较大,高于3000吨以上,产品型号齐全,规模效应明显,产品能够分摊更多固定费用,有一定的成本优势;另一方面,龙头企业研发能力较强、普遍拥有钕铁硼产品专利,可以出口产品,而没有专利的小型企业只能内销。
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