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谨慎情绪升温 资金频繁“挪腾”

2017-09-11 07:42:40   中国经济网

细化来看,资金对当前市场的悲观情绪其实并不算浓厚。据数据显示,周五开盘,无论是沪深300、中小板还是创业板资金均出现不同程度的净流出。但至尾盘,两市资金净流入态势均已得到好转,从一个侧面也说明了资金对市场仍然具有较强信心,这也是周五尾盘盘面出现企稳回升主要原因。通过对两市尾盘资金的流向来看,无论是创业板还是中小板,资金当前已对高成长的中小市值板块表现出了更大“兴趣”,尾盘这两个板面资金也均呈现出了净流入态势。而在沪深300方面,资金却依然出现净流出,显示资金对权重板块的介入意愿仍持续降温。通过对资金流向的观察,两市资金总体以及尾盘净流出双双出现的下降令人欣慰,这也表明资金对后市的态度已有所好转。而从资金在板块间的博弈有所加剧来看,后市“沪弱深强”的格局或仍将延续。

众所周知,观察资金这一只市场背后“看不见的手”对考察盘面的变化具有重要意义。分析人士表示,从周五尾盘流入的资金来看,其明显对中小板和创业板更为“青睐”,而沪市和深市在成交量的“一降一升”的变化或也与资金在板块间的进出有关。因而,“沪弱深强”这一新的市场风格也已现“雏形”。

结构性行情显现

上周,多数行业板块“飘红”。通过观察,资金当前已不再集中流向某个板块,更多的是向优质板块中的龙头标的进行“挪腾”,有加仓中小创的趋势。从盘面来看,结构性行情中的“热点轮动”格局正逐渐清晰。

从资金在行业方面的流入情况上看,上周,28个申万一级行业中,仅有房地产行业实现净流入,其流入金额为7.83亿元。其余27个板块均不同程度地呈现出资金净流出态势。但从单日的情况来看,每日情况也均有所差异。一方面显示前期资金获利较为集中的板块变现意愿加强,谨慎情绪有所上升。另一方面也表现出资金在板块间切换较为迅速。

而从行业涨跌方面的情况上看,28个申万一级行业中至收盘时有19个板块实现上涨,其中计算机、电子和休闲服务三个行业涨幅均超过2%。下跌的板块有9个,跌幅居前的有非银金融、钢铁、采掘。一方面,反映出当前市场令人“眼花缭乱”的热点切换速度,另一方面,也反映了在当前结构性的行情中行业在涨幅方面仍缺乏持续性。

国信证券表示,行情发酵到现在虽有部分板块已经积累较大涨幅,但仍有很多优质企业存在补涨需求,况且前期强势板块的上涨未必完全反映企业未来的发展空间。此外,前期市场虽对流动性方面有一定担忧,如外汇占款下降、金融杠杆率有限的因素,但商业银行对央行负债资产的上升有助于稳定市场的基础货币,在购房受限的情况下,市场整体流动性情况不会明显制约资本市场的表现。短期维持结构活跃、震荡回升的判断,耐心持股为主。

从资金净流入居前行业以及最受资金“青睐”的个股来看,此前并未进入视野的房地产行业似乎已开始被资金明显看好。其实,从私募二季度重仓股来看,众多私募机构对房地产行业早已埋伏。川财证券指出,当前房地产行业的估值仍然较低,具有较高安全边际,其配置价值已开始凸显。

分析人士指出,当前行情的主要逻辑就是价值修复,而非经济周期复苏的全面性机会,因此投资者当前仍应聚焦在结构性机会的把握方面。海通证券表示,通过观察过去5年最后三四个月的行情,结构往往突变。前三季净值排名后1/4的基金通过年底逆袭进入前3/4的比例达26%。而过往年底也频现幺蛾子,如2012年的银行,2013年的自贸区,2014年的一带一路和券商,2015年的券商和地产,2016年的建筑。而具有低涨幅、低配置、政策或事件催化这三个特征的行业往往最有可能在第四季度异军突起。

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