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人民币对美元升对欧元降 美元弱势造就持续反弹?

2017-09-09 07:56:44   新华网

  人民币还会继续升值吗?

此前,美联储已经宣布了资产负债表的收缩计划——与“加息”类似,被一些分析师认为可能带来新兴市场的资本流出、进一步造成汇率的震动,一如美联储第一次加息对中国的冲击。对此,瑞穗证券首席经济学家沈建光分析,在当前美国通胀不及预期、薪酬上涨缓慢、经济前景存在不确定性的背景下,美联储缩表过程预计将十分温和,不会对新兴市场国家产生如2014年退出量化宽松造成资金大规模流出那样的影响。

那么,此轮人民币升值能够持续吗?肖磊认为,各国正在采取策略来应对美元走弱,人民币汇率短期升幅过大对经济不利,央行干预的可能性较大,短期可能存在回调的压力。

“人民币未来的走势,还是要关注央行的货币政策走向。”王剑辉告诉记者,如果货币政策一直维持相对宽松的局面,人民币中长期强势还很难确立。另外,央行对人民币的调整措施如果有放松,人民币的支持力度也会受到显著影响。

杨德龙认为,长期来看,人民币并没有贬值的基础,不过大幅升值的可能性较小。“未来,人民币汇率可能会保持强势的走势,相对于美元出现一定升值,但大幅升值的可能也不大。去年底,对人民币贬值分析较多,我认为人民币‘破7’的可能性很小。果不其然,今年人民币是持续走强的。”

对于投资者的后市操作,杨德龙表示,美元相关资产可以换回人民币,A股已经走回慢牛行情,具有比较好的投资机会,可以换回A股的基金或者股票。

“我一直建议,单纯持有美元没有太大的优势,就算美元坚挺也受益甚微,可以更多的配置美元计价的资产来对冲美元贬值,比如黄金以及其他大宗商品。手里的美元如果不多,可以再拿一拿,但不要指望短期内会出现逆转。”肖磊建议。

  ■ 影响

  【投资】

  海外投资QDII基金最高收益超40%

“每个月定投500,在暂停申购以前,收益率一直保持在10%左右。”今年刚毕业不久的小张告诉记者,金融专业毕业的他把QDII基金当做日常理财的手段之一。

目前,我国尚未对包括海外购房在内的资本项目实行开放,但国内居民仍然有投资海外的渠道,以海外市场为投资目标的QDII基金就是其中的一种。新京报记者留意到,今年以来,多款基金产品走出了漂亮的曲线,多款产品收益率超过40%。

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