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华创证券:十大视角解读A股2017年半年报

2017-09-06 08:37:36   新华网

各板块固定资产周转率均有提升。我们以固定资产周转率来近似替代企业产能利用率状况,从而一探供给侧改革去产能效果在企业层面的体现。2017年上半年,全部A股(非金融)固定资产周转率为1.34次,较2016年一季度同比提高了17%。中小板、创业板2017年一季度固定资产周转率较2016年一季度同比增加了8.6%、8.1%,分别达到1.73次、1.86次。整体上看,全部A股(非金融)的固定资产周转率同比增速于2016年四季度由负转正,结束自2012年以来固定资产周转率持续走低的阴影,且连续三个季度得到提升(2016年四季度、2017年一季度和2017年二季度固定资产周转率同比增速分别为0.8%、17.7%、17.0%)。中小板固定资产周转率同比增速在2016年一季度已实现了由负转正,固定资产周转率连续六个季度同比提升。创业板固定资产周转率从2015年一季度开始持续提升,因其板块轻资产属性自2015年二季度以来明显高于全部A股(非金融)与中小企业板的固定资产周转率。

供给侧改革重点行业固定资产周转率明显改善。从制造业上游、中游、下游来看,2017上半年固定资产周转率分别为1.25、1.43、2.80次,较2016年一季度提高了21.85%、6.50%、2.41%。具体来看,上游企业2017年一季度固定资产周转率为0.58次,同比增速由负转正且连续2个季度大幅增加,结束了自2012年以来的持续下滑之势;中游企业固定资产周转率与上游相同,也是从2017年一季度开始得以提高。

具体到各行业来看,上游的采掘与有色金属固定资产周转率同比增速在2017年一季度同时开始由负转正,2017年二季度固定资产周转率继续分别提高了44.50%、10.39%至0.99次和1.50次,钢铁、化工行业的情况类似。上游煤炭、有色金属及中游的钢铁、化工等行业的去产能正是供给侧改革的重点之一,从产能利用情况来看,供给侧改革成效开始显现。另外,交运、机械设备、建筑材料与轻工制造的固定资产周转率2017年一季度也得到了大幅度提升。

2017年二季度各板块杠杆率略有抬头。根据2017年半年报,当前全部A股(非金融)资产负债率为60.26%,高于去年同期的60.18%,较2017年一季度抬升了0.8个百分点。主板、中小板、创业板2017年一季度的资产负债率分别为85.90%、57.43%、38.22%,分别较去年同期下降0.26%、下降1.18%和抬升2.74%,相比2017年一季度的85.74%、56.88%、36.54%均有所增加。从整体趋势上看,A股上市公司的资产负债率自2014年二季度高位以来呈现下降趋势,而创业板资产负债率自2011年不断走高并在2017年二季度创出历史性新高。

制造业资产负债率保持平稳。分行业来看,制造业上游、中游、下游企业的资产负债率分别为53.18%、59.13%、51.86%,较2017年一季度分别提高了0.96、0.28、0.62个百分点。上游企业自2008年以来,杠杆率不断抬升,在2014年达到53.18%的高位后开始小幅下滑,但2017年二季度又有所回升。中游上市公司的资产负债率自2004年以来始终高于上游、下游企业,其杠杆率在2014年二季度达到61.25%的高位之后,呈现出明显的下滑趋势,2017年二季度小幅回升。在申万28个一级行业中,除钢铁、国防军工、纺织服装、商业贸易及通信之外,其他23个行业的资产负债率均较一季度有不同程度的提升。

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