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华创证券:十大视角解读A股2017年半年报

2017-09-06 08:37:36   新华网

制造业上中游盈利增速仍处高位,交运行业营收大幅上涨。大类板块方面,制造业上游归母净利增速2016年三季度大幅回升创历史新高后有序回落,二季度回落至130.96%,仍显著高于其他板块。制造业中游呈现同样趋势,二季度盈利增速回落至32.74%,处于历史中位水平。制造业下游归母净利已连续两个季度在14%左右的水平增长。从营收增速来看,上游、中游虽出现大幅回落但仍处高位,分别为27.14%、19.87%,而下游延续震荡上行趋势,回升至17.04%。

在服务业板块方面,TMT和交运板块归母净利增速有所回升,分别达到26.47%、44.36%,均处历史中位水平。金融板块归母净利增速为1.71%,而交运板块营收增速达57.85%,延续一季度上升趋势并创历史新高,为各大板块之首,TMT及金融板块营收增速分别为18.13%、5.92%。整体来看,在制造业板块,上游、中游业绩虽出现大幅回落,但仍处历史高位,而下游则在正常盈利波动范围内小幅回升。在服务业板块,交运业绩表现抢眼,金融板块业绩仍处历史低位。

制造业上游、中游存货周转率明显改善。在存货周转率方面,二季度制造业上游存货周转率为3.83次,显著高于中游和下游的2.24次和2.12次,创2003年以来二季度存货周转率的新高。上游存货周转率自2012年以来在低位震荡后于2017年一季度回升至15.94%的高位,二季度微降0.34个百分点,但仍处高位。中游存货周转率同比增速自2011年以来一直为负,历经22个季度后于2016年三季度转正,今年一季度大幅上升至19.02%的高位,二季度回落至16.74%。下游存货周转率同比增速2011年以来一直在低位徘徊,二季度微升至3.32%,没有大幅改善的迹象。整体来看,二季度上游和中游的存货周转率增速虽略有回落,但仍处2011年以来的历史高位,上游存货周转率改善最为显著。企业存货周转期的缩短提高了资金运营效率,并增强了企业的偿债能力,制造业企业运营效率的普遍提高为其利润表和资产负债表的修复奠定了基础。

制造业上游投资意愿增强,中下游边际走弱。从制造业企业投资意愿来看,二季度上游投资现金流净流出虽仍处于2008年以来的低位,但相较于2017年一季度大幅增加至434.41亿元,同比增速突破2016年四季度阶段性高点至61.80%;中游投资现金流净流出增速自2014年四季度转正后历经10个季度的正增长,二季度再次回落至负增长水平,2017年二季度同比增速为-8.11%,净流出减少20.86亿元至236.38亿元;下游投资现金流净流出基本走平,维持在206亿元的高位,同比减少12.44%。整体来看,制造业上游投资现金流净流出同比增速稳步上升,中游和下游投资现金流净流出均处历史高位,而同比增速呈趋缓态势,企业投资意愿边际减弱。盈利情况的分化致使处于产业链上不同环节的企业采取了不同的投资计划,制造业上游企业投资支出的增加一定程度上对冲了中下游企业谨慎的投资决策,使得整体投资温和回落。

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