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去产能效应持续释放 钢铁行业上半年业绩“翻身”

2017-09-05 16:01:48   央广网

盈利好转之下,钢铁企业短、长期偿债能力均有所改善。长江证券统计显示,2017 年以来,行业资产负债率呈持续下行态势,1 季度环比下降0.48 个百分点,29 家上市钢企中仅10 家资产负债率有所上升,其余19 家均出现不同程度回落。2017 年上半年,行业流动比率为近两年来相对高位,29 家钢企中仅7 家流动比率有所下降,其余22 家均有所回升。

2016 年国务院发布《关于积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率的意见》,指出要积极稳妥降低企业杠杆率,对于钢铁行业目标杠杆率,据经济参考报报道称通过3-5 年去杠杆,钢铁行业杠杆率应降至60%以下。在当前行业盈利高企的格局下,行业去杠杆有望进一步加速。

钢铁行业在2017年上半年跑出优异行情,这种态势是否可以延续?

从去产能以及各项督查等综合来看,供给侧的改善将继续发挥效应,兰格钢铁研究中心主任王国清告诉第一财经记者,从需求端来看,下半年PPP及各项重大工程项目的推进,以及基建投资的托底作用,需求仍将平稳释放,因此市场基本面仍有改善的趋势,所以下半年钢市仍会有好的行情出现。

具体来说,对于2017年下半年,钢铁价格最主要的推力可能还是来自于限产预期。

第一财经记者获悉,8月21日,环保部、发改委、工信部等十六部委发布《京津冀及周边地区2017-2018 年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》,明确在全面完成“大气十条”考核指标的基础上,今年10 月到明年3 月,京津冀大气污染传输通道城市PM2.5 平均浓度同比下降15%以上,重污染天数同比下降15%以上,并将目标分解到各个城市。

广发证券研究团队认为,环保高压或常态化,而环保持续高压不仅将限制钢厂的产量释放,还将使得环保不达标的钢厂逐步退出市场。

兰格钢铁研究中心研究员徐莉颖告诉第一财经记者,采暖季“2+26”城市钢铁产能限产50%,如此强烈的限产预期,让后期给供给收缩产生了强烈的预期。

而有钢贸商向第一财经记者表示,进入九月份,钢铁产品进入传统的消费旺季,钢铁供给需求端的收紧可能将会继续给钢铁企业带来较大的盈利预期。(王世峰)

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