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棉纱市场的那些事儿
2017-09-05 09:42:17 中国经济网
2016年出口下降的原因包括:主要出口市场经济复苏缓慢,外需疲软;外部环境不稳,影响出口的不确定因素增多;企业生产成本不断提升,传统优势进一步弱化;产业转移导致我国产品在国际主要市场上的份额逐步缩小;出口商品价格出现较大幅度下跌。
产业运行现状及后市展望
国内棉价特别是抛储成交均价具有明显的价格优势。2017年,抛储成交均价与现货3128B棉花主流价的差额平均为1000元/吨,近期价差有所拉大。目前,现货3128B主流价在15870元/吨,8月24日抛储成交均价只有13955元/吨,价差为1915元/吨。
正因为抛储期间纺企大量使用低价棉,使得棉纱成本优势增加,2016年开始,国内棉纱与进口棉纱价格出现倒挂。例如,印度国内棉价较高,并且有3.5%的关税,印度棉纱价格优势削减,其出口量大幅下滑。这不仅提升了我国棉纱的自给率,而且改善了国内企业的利润水平。
2017年,棉纱下游淡季已经提前结束,纱厂棉纱库存明显下降,生产负荷随之攀升,年内棉纱产量有望突破650万吨,表观消费量可能达到800万吨。
棉纱价格与棉花价格的相关性较高,棉花价格对于棉纱价格的主导作用明显。2017年,截至8月底,储备棉出库250多万吨,加上本年度500万吨的产量和100万吨的进口量,棉花供应量超过850万吨。此外,新棉增产预期强烈,短期内市场不缺货源,棉花价格承压,进而传导至下游市场,棉纱价格很可能随之偏弱振荡。
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