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外部资金现流入迹象 股市资金面渐趋活跃

2017-09-05 09:12:22   新华网

昨日,沪深两市合计成交金额约6464亿元,较前一个交易日增加超过50亿元。其中,深市公司合计成交金额3501亿元,创下4个多月以来单日成交金额新高,成为年初以来仅次于4月11日的单日成交金额次高日。

此外,上周(8月28日至9月1日)两市日均交易金额突破5900亿元,环比大幅增长超过30%。而从8月份整体情况来看,两市日均交易金额约5100亿元,较去年8月增长5.5%,同时较今年7月增长10.2%,实现同比、环比双增长。

而代表高风险偏好的融资余额也出现连续6周环比攀升。截至9月1日,两市合计融资余额为9429亿元,刷新今年以来高点,并较今年7月下旬明显增加近700亿元,增长幅度超过7%,显示市场风险偏好继续得到修复。

Choice数据显示,按照申万一级行业分类,自7月下旬以来,除医药生物、轻工制造、机械设备3个行业整体融资余额出现回落外,剩余25个行业均出现融资余额不同程度增长。其间,有色金属行业融资余额大增143亿元,高居行业榜首,非银金融、化工、银行等行业融资净买入金额也均超过40亿元。

增量资金成后续关键因素

沪指站稳3300点后,行情究竟还能走多远?对此,多位受访业内人士表示,在经济数据超预期、上市公司整体盈利水平向好、流动性环境趋稳等多重因素下,市场短期震荡向上格局不会改变,增量资金将成为后续关注的重点。

申万宏源首席策略分析师王胜向记者表示,预计近期不会出现流动性环境的明显变化,这一状况有望延续至11月份。

他认为,下半年最大的变量在于美元指数,如果美元指数出现明显反弹,很可能导致流向新兴市场的资本出现一定程度回流,届时市场相对比较宽松的外部环境才会出现变化。不过他也表示,需要关注金融去杠杆政策的实施进程,后者可能会阶段性地对国内流动性环境产生影响。

安信证券策略团队同样预计,央行在公开市场操作上将继续保持稳定,同时叠加人民币升值及外汇占款回升等因素,9、10月份流动性环境有望得到改善,利率水平有望保持平稳,有助于股市进一步走强。

天风证券分析师徐彪称,需关注市场从存量博弈向增量资金入市转变的可能。他表示,近期已经观察到有更多绝对收益资金流入市场的迹象,但这一趋势仍有待确认。⊙记者 严政 屈红燕

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