404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
BDI暖风吹 商品“金秋”盼丰收
2017-09-05 08:01:51 中国经济网
景川表示,从过去指数运行情况来看,BDI指数与商品“金九银十”行情有一定的正相关性,这与消费旺季前行业集中备货,阶段性提升了船运需求有关。今年,国内消费增长趋势较好,预计旺季行情仍有一定体现。另外,今年主导商品尤其工业品走势的因素主要还在于供给端,预计在11月之前,国内相关企业限产和环保检查力度不会明显减轻,价格的进一步上涨将刺激进口增加,部分供应缺口也会通过进口补足,对BDI指数的上行有强化作用。“金九银十”反映的是消费的小高峰,市场自然在供给收缩的背景下对消费加以预期,对BDI的回升亦较为有利。
下半年机遇与风险并存
站在目前时点,程小勇认为,未来,商品供应端对价格的影响可能会逐渐消退,需求端才是主导。下半年,企业、居民和政府都将面临去杠杆,尤其是基建投资因地方政府融资规范、追责等措施完善。因此,四季度大宗商品需求大概率出现回落,价格也大概率面临回吐涨幅的风险,具体幅度要视需求回落程度而定。
姜兴春则分析表示,国家继续严控落后产能,钢铁、煤炭、有色产能出清同时,产量在收缩,且库存处于低位,现货紧张传递至期货端,放大了担忧,期货价格近期快速上涨就是多种力量的综合结果。预计大宗商品高位震荡行情还会延续,但价格走高的同时也会刺激生产,谨防市场出现宽幅震荡和大幅冲高回落风险。
“年内主导大宗商品走势的关键因素分别有:美联储紧缩货币政策的进度、全球主要经济体增长前景、潜在风险事件爆发概率、国内供给侧改革和环保检查的执行力度等。”景川表示。
景川进一步解释说,具体来看,目前美国、欧元区和日本等经济体今年经济增长前景相对稳定,年内经济数据整体表现偏好,只要不发生“黑天鹅”事件,预计大宗商品需求方面将维持稳步增长,对价格形成支撑。而对于美联储年内货币政策,目前市场的基准判断是9月份启动“缩表”,12月开始加息。根据过往在加息前后美元和商品走势规律来看,12月前美元难以有大幅走强表现,对商品不会构成明显压力;而在12月加息前后商品则可能出现一轮明显调整行情。同时,短期内国内环保检查力度难以减轻,因此,年内商品走势整体将呈现中期上涨、局部调整的特点。不过,未来潜在的风险事件则将成为商品价格主要的不确定来源,一旦发生,将在短时间内造成商品大幅调整。
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
相关阅读
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
加载更多>>
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170905/31284687_3.html |
Server: |
cms-8-252 |
Date: |
2024/12/02 15:16:44 |
Powered by China
China