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股基仓位站上88%已一月 “八八魔咒”未应验

2017-08-31 07:40:43   中国经济网

据中国基金业协会统计数据,2004年,公募基金合计持有A股流通市值占总市值的比重为14.7%,此后3年持续上升,特别是2007年达到25.7%,是2004年以来的最高值。2008年,公募基金所持市值的占比下滑至19.8%,此后连年下滑,2010年降至10%以下,2015年降至4.2%,2016年降至4.11%。

市场韧性仍较强

多位今年以来业绩较好的基金经理表示,现在很少从仓位的角度上去博取收益,只有特别看好市场才会适当增加仓位,但幅度不会特别大。目前来看,基金对A股仍持偏积极的态度。

博时基金首席宏观策略分析师魏凤春表示,短期内公募、私募基金的总体仓位处于高水平,新增机构资金来源有限。

乐观地看,市场可能呈现板块轮动,市场心态可能保持积极。结构上,周期股行情可能继续分化,金融股与成长股有望延续反弹,国企改革、雄安新区与金砖会议等主题可能有所表现。

平安大华基金表示,周期、消费、金融三个板块的业绩出现明显改善。受益于供给侧改革和行业集中度的提高,周期品价格和业绩复苏在半年报中得到完美的体现。在消费板块中,白酒和家电类上市公司的半年报非常靓丽。金融板块盈利改善也很明显,上半年信贷需求回升,金融监管的加强使得企业融资需求回归银行表内,贷款利率的回升是大概率事件。市场情绪方面,经过年中以来的修复,市场整体强度出现趋势上的扭转迹象。较此前结构分化下的市场运行,当前市场无疑具备更强的韧性。

招商基金表示,在乐观的预期下,结构性机会远大于指数机会。对于指数,仍以流动性考量作为最显著的影响变量,衡量市场的全局性赚钱效应,目前偏谨慎。对于结构性行情,从基本面角度出发选股,继续持有价值龙头股、跟踪周期品、挖掘中小创板块中盈利增长较为确定且估值合理的标的。

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