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9月流动性料有惊无险 资金面“通关”还有三道坎

2017-08-31 07:40:43   中国经济网

长江证券研报指出,9月,同业存单到期规模创历史新高,还面临MPA考核、美联储FOMC会议等影响。与前两个季度末相比,对9月流动性环境不宜过于担忧、也不宜期望过高。货币投放或继续“削峰填谷”、保持银行体系流动性的基本稳定,资金面或维持紧平衡,仍需做好流动性管理。

中金公司分析师表示,9月份同业存单滚动发行会由于供求重新匹配而产生摩擦,尤其是银行会由于不确定性而增加备付。加上季末MPA考核、LCR等流动性考核压力,容易引发资金面的压力。不过,从今年的实际情况看,季度月市场均普遍担心,但由于央行的资金投放操作加上财政存款季末集中投放,资金面反而不紧张。在货币政策的不松不紧、削峰填谷的操作下,资金面大概率仍是有惊无险。

明明则认为,9月资金面将相对充裕。首先,货币基金新规落地不明确,货基续做同业存单动力较大,到期风险较低;其次,基于2015年和2016年第三季度季末财政存款释放比例,估算得到9月释放量在5000亿元-9000亿元之间,资金面充裕;在超储率低水平背景下,央行通过预判采取预调,使流动性周期与市场预期资金面周期相逆,“该紧不紧,该松不松”,9月中旬开始央行或将进行流动性净投放,保证9月底资金面的“不紧”。

综合机构观点,超储率低意味着资金面“底子薄”,9月扰动因素较多,资金面波动加大将不可避免,但央行货币政策维持稳健中性,公开市场操作“削峰填谷”,后续资金面不松不紧、维持紧平衡仍将是常态。

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