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价格暴涨 维生素行情还能飞多久

2017-08-29 09:36:16   新华网

维生素产业下游需求较为稳定,主要用于饲料添加剂、医药、化妆品和食品饮料,其中饲料添加剂占比达到80%。对于下游饲料企业,维生素添加有明确的标准,为刚性需求。从成本来看,维生素合计约12个品种,整体占饲料成本的2%-3%,而且涨价可以顺势转移到下游,下游大型企业拥有库存优势,涨价对其提升竞争力更为有利。国海证券分析师认为,此轮环保限量遇上低库存,预计部分小的预混料企业甚至会因为缺货而被迫停产。届时,恐怕价格再高,下游可能都要接受。

从历史经验看,国内饲料生产较为规律,下半年产量都会逐步提高,7月、8月和9月是产量增长的主要月份,也是对维生素采购的旺季。按照目前库存情况,预计8月底—9月初,供需平衡将达到一个极端。

申万宏源证券分析师宋涛介绍,近日主流维生素厂家发货紧张,已停报外单。随着第四轮环保督查组进驻浙江,预计新和成、浙江医药等企业开工将受到一定影响。随着下游饲料行业即将进入需求旺季,VA价格反弹有望持续,目前看仍有接近翻倍的涨价空间。

目前,环保督查组已经开始在山东和浙江展开督查工作。国海证券分析师指出,若生产企业进一步限产,供需将严重失衡,供方可能再大幅提价以弥补限量带来的损失。

招商证券表示,维生素企业议价能力较强,而下游饲料行业较为分散,同时大部分品种技术壁垒较高,在当前环保压力较大的情况下,部分小企业逐步出清,产业集中度进一步提升。而维生素价格弹性普遍较大,一旦开始提价,未来涨价空间较大。建议投资者重点关注具备更强市场竞争力、更具技术优势的行业龙头标的。(记者 叶涛)

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