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价格上升和轻资产是牛股催化剂

2017-08-28 19:11:01   中国经济网

还有nttdocomo,日本最大的电信企业。虽然设备投资额接近净利润的150%,但是因为移动时代的风口,股价仍能有50%的上涨。

其他设备投资额较少股价攀升的还有前文提到的日本烟草JT、明光私塾和花王化妆品。

而那些设备投资吞噬了企业利润的同时也压制了股价的公司是哪些?

比如王子制纸,1873年创业的老牌纸生产商。主要业务有,占日本全国30%的报纸用纸;书和杂志及宣传单;办公室用纸。每年投入的设备投资都大于利润。互联网和无纸化办公对这家公司的打击是长久的。PE为15倍,PB仅0.87倍,市值3500亿元人民币。

再如昭和壳牌石油,油价低迷所致。目前PE为26倍,PB为2倍。市值300亿元人民币。

旭硝子,化工企业玻璃制造商,作为大宗商品的玻璃,在今年价格刚刚开始反弹。之前也是价格和设备投资额的双杀。

还有任天堂,家喻户晓的电子游戏软件生产商,虽然设备的投资额占利润的比重只有20%,虽然任天堂也深受手游抢占游戏市场之苦,但是股价也只是小幅下挫而已。随后口袋妖怪、太阳月亮的热卖把这个盲区给修正了。

 放长周期选公司

这些年随着全球化的银根宽松和技术进步,一些喧嚣一时的公司如过江之鲫,要现金流不要利润,甚至可以连现金流也不要只追求获客率。但是,真正能在10年这个长周期里获胜的企业,一定是身边触手可及的而且能长期提供稳定商品的公司。

A股的牛股基本上也符合这样的规的,过去10年轻资产+价格上升导致云南白药、东阿阿胶、片仔癀、贵州茅台和恒瑞医药股价的大幅上涨。

既然一个公司不用支出太多在设备投资上就能稳定的获取利润,那么这样的现金奶牛明星企业的PE、PB通常都是很高的,总是比重资产企业贵,市盈率远高于重资产企业。而那些大量设备投资的公司,产能过剩或者周期性明显,新增竞争资本少,在周期底部的话也许中短期内反而有很大的机会。

就算是巴菲特,既买过轻资产的喜诗糖果,也买过重资产的伯克希尔钢铁厂,并为之后悔。怎么在企业的长期竞争力和股价之间达到心之所安的平衡既是一门科学,更是一门艺术。

中国有没有这样容易理解并且不需要设备投资,商品价格还能一路走高的公司?港股中有一家,中国最大的殡葬服务提供商福寿园(01448.HK) 。

去除因公益性质以极低价格售出的部位,过去4年来,销售量稳步上升,同时单穴的价格也稳步上抬。其设备投资额非常低,固定资产从2014年的2.71亿元,2015年的3.61亿元,2016年的3.84亿元,一直到2017年的4.24亿元,跟每年3亿元的净利润相比,投资在固定资产上的比例仅20%左右,这个比例是跟日本的明光私塾差不多。20亿元非流动资产里有16亿元是现金结存。固定资产的主体就是价值2亿元的办公楼。

回归到彼得·林奇所谓的买股票先问太太诉诸直觉,在这样一个随便买部代步车都要10万-20万元,买个房子都要几百万元的社会里,对百善孝为先的中国人来说,作为追思主体的墓地的长期价格的逐步上涨趋势是不可逆转的。

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