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商业应用可期 可燃冰主题投资不断深化

2017-08-28 09:15:51   新华网

可燃冰储量巨大,所含有机碳资源总量相当于全球已知煤、石油和天然气总量的两倍,被国际公认为石油、天然气的接替能源。目前,仅我国海域预测远景资源量就达到800亿吨油当量,而世界资源量约为2100万亿立方米,可供人类使用1000年。

世界各国也纷纷投入巨资开展可燃冰试采,竞争异常激烈,其中可燃冰研发活跃的国家主要有中国、美国、日本、加拿大、韩国等,此外,印度、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚等国也制定了可燃冰试采计划。

与世界能源消费结构相比,我国煤炭消费占比较高,而煤炭能源具有高污染、低效率等特征,因此我国能源消费结构亟待优化改善。国信证券分析师燕翔认为,如果未来可燃冰能够实现大规模开采,一方面可以改善我国的能源结构问题,解决当前过度依赖煤炭资源造成的空气质量等一系列问题,另一方面更能够减少我国能源供给的对外依存度,大幅提高中国在国际能源市场的话语权,确保国家能源安全。

并且,作为目前已知储量最大的替代能源,可燃冰还可以推动世界能源利用格局改变,其下游终端需求包括交通、冶金、电力、轻工等行业,其中包括内燃机、汽车、炼钢、热处理、印染、纺织等诸多领域。

据国土资源部中国地质调查局副局长李金发预计,2030年以前,我国将实现可燃冰的商业性开发。在此之前,根据国土资源科技创新规划,“十三五”期间,通过研制深远海油气及可燃冰勘探开发技术装备,我国将推进大洋海底矿产勘探及海洋可燃冰试采工程,力争2020年实现商业化试采,研制成功全海深潜水器和深远海核动力浮动平台技术。

投资主线显现

在A股市场上,可燃冰早就不是个新鲜词。随着利好消息频频爆发,中海油服、杰瑞股份、石化机械等可燃冰相关概念股反复受到投资者关注。

具体来看,与上游开采相关的产业主要包括:一是油服产业,如提供海上开采设备、服务的企业,相关上市公司有石化机械、海油工程、杰瑞股份等;二是与可燃冰关联度最高的天然气和LNG产业链,相关上市公司有富瑞特装、中集集团、中国船舶等。

广发证券分析师认为,可燃冰主题短期表现多与重大突破等事件性驱动逻辑相关,而中长期表现则取决于政策、技术及商业化程度等因素。主题投资策略方面,从产业链收益逻辑出发,建议重点关注可燃冰产业链中配套机械设备、勘探开采等上游相关企业,尤其是具有较高深海技术和勘探开采能力的海上油气钻采设备及厂商。

安信证券建议从三主线把握可燃冰主题投资:一是此次成功采油的平台“蓝鲸一号”是由中集来福士公司研制,作为母公司,中集集团将受益于此次试验成功,将获得更多政策及经费支持,对公司业绩产生正向影响;二是试验成功后,未来我国势必加大对可燃冰开采技术的资源投入,相关固定资产投资有望提速,油服设备及服务企业有望受益,另外,中国船舶、中国重工等主要生产LNG运输船和海上钻井平台的相关企业也将一定程度上受益;三是此次可燃冰试采成功提供了一种新的天然气来源,将使得天然气产业进一步市场化,相关设备企业将迎来机遇。记者 叶涛

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