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人民币中间价升破6.66
2017-08-23 09:21:01 中国经济网
预计下半年仍将双向波动
今年5月26日开始,央行考虑在人民币兑美元中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子,这也是人民币开始强势升值的主要催化剂。需要指出的是,7月代表批发外汇市场供求状况指标的央行外汇占款降幅收窄至-46亿元,仍未转正。
招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩认为,尽管债市开放和季节性贸易顺差扩大,而且下半年外汇市场存在阶段性供大于求的可能性,但是央行外汇占款还会持续疲弱,仍在零增长附近波动,持续地系统性正增长的概率较低。这意味着银行流动性难以通过外汇占款补充而改善,银行“负债荒”的局面难改。逆周期因子的引入可以分化市场对人民币汇率的贬值预期,并非单方向助推人民币升值,而是保持人民币对一篮子货币汇率的基本稳定,预计下半年人民币兑美元汇率仍是“双向波动”。
总体来看,外汇分析师韩会师指出,对于当前人民币汇率市场的总体情绪,不能简单用贬值预期上升、下降、消失等词汇轻易定性,可能比较客观的判断是:个人市场悲观情绪趋于缓解,企业层面出现分歧;贬值预期虽然淡化,但升值预期尚未占据上风;结售汇小幅逆差的格局有望延续,但阶段性小幅顺差对人民币的拉升作用将有望增强。
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