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开打贸易战,美国是搬石头“砸自己脚”

2017-08-16 11:12:10   新华网

另外,美方发起调查立足于“国内法优于国际法”的基本原则——这是赤裸裸的经济法律霸权。如果中国采取同样措施,依照中国国内法对美国企业调查,美国在中国许多投资企业将会面临灾难性后果。

更为重要的是,当前美国在处理地区事务、国内经济发展方面需要中国支持,如果美国贸易代表莽撞从事,可能损害中美两国战略合作关系。倘若中美两国关系发生实质变化,美国不仅在处理地缘问题难以得到中国配合,其所谓“重振制造业”也可能得不到中国企业响应。

中美贸易战利弊,特朗普未必不知。其之所以要发起调查,除去政治压力,定势思维也是关键。以往,美方但凡要求对中国开展贸易调查,中方便立即到美国疯狂采购。这使得美国朝野形成思维定势,认为中国在贸易问题上有求于美国,若向中国施加压力,中国会做出让步,美国企业则能够得到巨额订单。今天的中国,是时候改变这一想法了。

中美两国“贸易战”究竟鹿死谁手还未可知。现在美方已发出“指令”,若此次调查只是“拖延战术”,妄图帮助美国总统减轻国会压力,笔者以为,中国应相机行事;倘若美方实施贸易制裁,中国需要先发制人,被动应对无论结果如何,都会损害中国形象。比如,中方可对境内美国企业开展全面调查,并准备好制裁清单,同时对美国出口的产品采取调查等。

事实上,中国不担心美方对中国发起贸易调查,更不担心贸易制裁。在中美两国贸易关系上,中方并非可以任意敲打的对象,主动发起挑衅,美国必然会搬起石头砸自己的脚。正如外交部发言人华春莹对此的表态:“打贸易战没有前途、只会双输”。权衡利弊,奉劝美国贸易代表,还需慎重决策。

□乔新生(中南财经政法大学教授)

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