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人民币汇率创年内新高 航空、房地产等行业受益

2017-08-11 11:41:03   中国经济网

造纸行业的主要原材料如木浆和废纸等主要依赖进口,是第三大用汇行业。去年,受人民币贬值影响,造纸原材料价格上涨,行业成本明显上涨。近期人民币走强,将降低造纸行业原材料成本。不过,现阶段造纸行业供需关系的关键因素仍然是严格的环保督查。环保规范的大型造纸企业预计将享受到供给侧改革和成本下降的双重红利。

钢铁和部分有色行业原材料进口依赖度较高,人民币走强有助于降低成本,但不利于钢铁产品出口。在内需增加的情况下,人民币走强对行业影响偏正面。兰格钢铁分析师王国清对中国证券报记者表示,今年铁矿石的月度进口均价4月份达到83.38美元/吨的高点后逐月下滑,7月份仅为56.99美元/吨。除了铁矿石供大于求外,人民币升值也起到一定作用。

此外,在打击“地条钢”行动影响下,废钢价格下调,不少钢企转炉开始使用废钢作为生产原材料。部分企业生产吨钢使用废钢达到400公斤。这在一定程度上抑制了企业对铁矿石的消费量。出口方面,国内钢铁价格持续大幅上升,以螺纹钢为例,今年以来价格上涨超过1000元/吨,内销利润丰厚,出口积极性下降。海关数据显示,1-7月累计出口钢材4795万吨,同比下降28.7%。人民币走强将改善大型钢铁公司的盈利水平。

多因素对冲汇率波动

纺织服装、家电等行业对出口的依存度较高,人民币升值不利于提高产品的国际市场竞争力,出口订单或被部分分流,同时将承受一定的汇兑损失。中国证券报记者从多家公司了解到,今年以来人民币升值幅度超过3%,但海外市场需求回暖,订单增长对冲了部分汇率变动风险。

某上市纺织服装企业董秘对记者表示,人民币升值会使得一些即时结汇的中小型企业受到一定的影响。对于大型出口型企业而言,一般都有一套成熟的机制对冲汇率波动风险。比如,与大客户签订合同时,会约定双方认可的汇率或引入日元、欧元结算等。整体看,人民币短期内波动对大型企业的利润影响有限。该人士同时表示,人民币汇率波动加大,企业应谨慎看待汇率风险,做好措施规避汇率变动带来的风险。

目前出口型企业规避外汇汇率波动风险主要依靠风险管理。比如,选用“一篮子”货币进行平衡抵消等;运用场外的衍生品工具,比如与银行签订外汇远期结售汇和外汇期权也是重要方式。

部分美元负债较高的大型企业选择降低美元负债占比。以民航行业为例,2015年汇改以来,人民币兑美元汇率进入下滑通道。2015年三大航企年报显示,人民币贬值产生的汇兑损益几乎吞噬掉了低油价和高客座率带给航空业的红利。航空公司纷纷降低美元负债比例,拓展国内融资渠道等方式,以降低人民币贬值对业绩带来的影响。年报显示,截至2016年底,三大航空公司将美元债比例由高位70%降至低于50%。

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