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“抛弃”美元走出独立行情 人民币汇率一度升破6.7

2017-08-09 11:27:14   新华网

在美元波动较小的情况下,8日人民币对美元出现大幅上涨,且一度升破6.70整数点位。

8日16:30,在岸人民币对美元收盘价报6.7035,较上一交易日涨147个基点,创去年10月10日以来新高,盘中一度升破6.70关口。离岸人民币对美元日内大涨逾200个基点,亦创下去年10月以来新高至6.7019。同日,人民币对美元中间价调升44个基点,报6.7184。

外汇分析师李刘阳表示,8日美元并无太大变化,人民币升值属于独立行情。当市场逐步创新高时,客盘结汇需求被激发出来。外汇专家韩会师对记者表示,出现这种情况一般有两种可能,一是出现大额结汇,二是市场上美元多头力量大幅萎缩。无论是哪种原因,均反映出人民币贬值预期已经明显降温,这一方面源自市场对美元有望维持弱势的预期,另一方面源自今年以来人民币持续升值对市场信心的提振。

在民生银行高级研究员应习文看来,这不仅因为美元指数小幅下跌,更重要的是源于人民币对非美货币走强。

值得注意的是,人民币对美元的升值幅度比此前更大。应习文表示,此前,在美元走弱情况下,尽管人民币对美元升值,但幅度不如其他非美货币。7月份后3周人民币CFETS指数连续下跌,然而在本周美元指数有所企稳的情况下,人民币对美元强势依旧,8月4日CFETS指数也呈现企稳态势。

“这表明人民币对美元升值由美元走弱驱动变为人民币本身走强驱动。”应习文分析,人民币走强的原因在于:一是随着人民币持续升值时间越来越长,市场对于人民币的信心不断积聚;二是7月上市公司海外分红与暑期居民出国高峰因素逐步消退;三是中国经济基本面好于预期,预计即将公布的8月份各项宏观数据仍将表现出较强韧性。

“人民币汇率未来有望再次击穿6.70。”德国商业银行首席中国经济师周浩对记者表示。

市场对人民币汇率的预期已经转变。“客户已经从贬值预期开始转变为升值预期。”李刘阳表示,客户已经对未来的美元收入采取远期锁汇的方式来避险。

与此同时,人民币资产的持有意愿正在上升。外汇专家程实指出,根据EPFR数据,全球资金在中国股市的流向,已从去年的净流出转变为今年的净流入。这表明,除人民币存款外,A股亦成为本轮人民币上升周期的主要引擎。

中金公司分析师陈健恒认为,在美元走弱的背景下,人民币对美元升幅明显滞后于美元指数跌幅和大部分新兴市场货币升幅,预计人民币未来几个月可能还会阶段性走强,这不但可以修复贬值预期,带来资金回流,也有利于资金面稳定。

“随着今年以来人民币基本面持续改善,人民币汇率企稳预期正在取代贬值预期,将进一步稳定人民币汇率的中长期运行态势。”程实表示。(记者 张玉)

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