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博鳌大讲堂杨现领:数据透视租赁市场新机遇

2017-08-09 11:06:15   光明网

租金回报率低 不代表租赁市场没前途

在租赁市场有一个普遍观点,认为中国一线城市租金回报率只有1.5%,处于较低水平,而这将导致租赁市场前途受限。对此,杨现领用一组数据表达了对这一观点的不同看法。他认为:租金回报率低,不代表租赁市场没有前途。

第一,事实上一线城市的租金回报率高于1.5%。杨现领指出:一线城市的租房状态以合租为主,如果房屋空间得到有效释放,租金回报率将高于目前的1.5%。

第二,租金回报率是动态的。按照租金以每年将近8%的速度复合型增长,那么五年后的租金回报率与今天相比,不可一概而论。

第三,业主愿不愿意把房子租出来,核心取决于业主租金收入能不能覆盖它的月供。然而租金能否覆盖业主的月供,其衡量指标应该是多元的。

第四,房屋转售的交易成本高,变现越来越难,房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的,通过买卖房屋来快速获取回报难度加大,这也将促使更多房屋以租赁的形式实现回报。

强运营与快周转是租赁和开发的本质区别

在任何一个国家,租赁市场房源只有20%来自新增开发,而新增开发的主要形式是持有。对此,杨现领分享了两点见解:

第一,在拆迁成本和供地成本不断提高的时代,新增用地应供应到高品质的商品房开发上。杨现领指出,目前一线城市中北京、上海、深圳的商品房比例在不断压缩,新增用地应更多满足一线消费者的改善需求。

第二,租赁是运营商的生意,开发商入市需谨慎,两者的核心能力完全不同,租赁运营商的核心能力是管理,而开发商的核心能力是周转能力。

杨现领认为:如果要做租赁,要把它当成一个十年的生意来做,这跟开发完全不同。租赁强调的是强运营,开发强调的是快周转,这是两者之间的本质区别。

租赁行业发展核心在于运营和服务能力

美国机构化运营机构持有或管理运营的租赁房屋数量占比超过30%,日本超过80%,而在中国这个数尚不足2%。在成熟的租赁市场,产业链生态体系十分完整,房地产互联网租赁信息平台服务、托管服务、软件供应等领域均有代表性的企业。

杨现领认为,中国亟需培养形成完整的租赁生态产业链。他提到:事实上,目前对于中国的运营机构,规模门槛较高,管理五万间和三十万间是完全不同的概念。“在运营的过程中我们发现,当管理的房间数量少于1000间时,公司可以实现盈利,但是当管理的房间数量超过1000间时,公司的利润消失了。很多企业难以突破1万间门槛,解决规模扩张难题与陷阱要靠系统、靠技术、靠数据、靠互联网。”杨现领分析,租赁运营至少需要投入10年的精力。

租赁的本质在于运营,运营的核心在于服务。杨现领进一步指出,无论是自如还是其他的公寓运营商,对于运营这门生意,需要有坚定不移的信念,因为,这个市场不缺机会,致胜法宝一直都是运营与服务能力。

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