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7月CPI涨幅回落 全年通胀压力不大

2017-08-09 11:06:15   中国经济网

受翘尾因素走低的影响,7月CPI同比涨幅也回落至1.4%。而此前CPI曾连续两个月持平在1.5%。分析人士表示,预计下半年CPI同比涨幅可能会略低于上半年,全年通胀压力不大。

国家统计局9日公布数据显示,7月份CPI上涨1.4%,涨幅比上月回落0.1个百分点。

交行金融研究中心首席宏观分析师唐建伟分析认为,从近期CPI重点构成部分来看,食品价格仍以下跌为主,非食品价格则整体平稳。预计这种局面下半年仍会维持,如果不出现大的外部因素的冲击,下半年影响CPI同比走势的将主要是翘尾因素。

这一点在7月CPI数据中已有体现。据测算,在7月份1.4%的同比涨幅中,去年价格变动的翘尾因素约为1个百分点,新涨价因素约为0.4个百分点。

唐建伟表示,翘尾因素在6月达到年内最高点之后会逐步走低,预计下半年CPI同比涨幅可能会略低于上半年,全年通胀压力不大。

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