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房地产调控“年中考”:一旦松绑,楼市或临压力

2017-07-13 09:17:09   

二手房市场也在降温。此前交易火爆的北京、上海等的多家中介门店,明显冷清了很多。《瞭望》新闻周刊记者在位于北京宣武门附近的一家房产中介门店蹲点两小时,只看到三四组客户前来看房。该门店经纪人赵女士坦言,调控之前全天都闲不下来。

链家地产数据显示,北京、广州、深圳、天津、杭州等二手房市场量价齐降。4月北京二手房成交量不及3月成交量的四分之一,成交均价环比下跌2.1%,是2015年11月以来的首次下跌;广州成交量环比减少57.5%,均价环比下跌1.3%;天津成交量下降59.9%,均价环比下跌1.1%。

从房价方面来看,随着政策效应的继续释放,一、二线热点城市房价趋向平稳。19日,国家统计局公布的5月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况显示,房地产调控政策效果继续显现,楼市呈现稳中有降格局。

其中,热点调控城市降温尤为明显。四个一线城市中,只有广州的新建商品住宅价格指数上涨0.9%,上海和北京则出现房价环比“零涨幅”,深圳更是环比下跌。从同比来看,5月份,70个城市中新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格同比涨幅比上月回落的城市分别有29和18个。

国家统计局城市司高级统计师刘建伟称,据测算,一线城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格同比涨幅均连续8个月回落,5月份比4月份分别回落2.2和1.7个百分点;二线城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格同比涨幅分别连续6个月和4个月回落,5月份比4月份分别回落0.8和0.5个百分点。

严跃进认为,当前楼市的特点是,一线城市总体降温,二线城市市场有分化,弱房价和热房价城市相互牵制。

市场仍存上涨预期

调研采访中,专家提醒《瞭望》新闻周刊记者,当前楼市调控多以短期、需求端为主,采取“限”字措施抑制投资投机需求,但客观上部分居住需求也受到影响;而且,投资需求还在,只是暂时被“堵”住。调控一旦“松绑”,会对楼市的供给关系形成压力。

目前来看,房价上涨预期尚未降温,一位房企负责人说。

在名为“投资环京”的微信群里,有一批环京楼市投资者交流心得。“环雄安地区严厉限购,北京南部地区需要有当地户籍或者社保门槛,投资难度增大。但在廊坊北三县地区,外地户籍还可以购买一套,能买还是尽量买。”群里一名较为活跃的投资人说,不排除未来各地放松调控的可能性。一旦放松,市场就会回暖,房价反弹的可能性就很大。

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