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从城市看中国:格局演变、转型升级与持久繁荣

2017-06-23 06:41:24   

从城市层面看,在经济增速方面:第一,城市经济增速的普遍性放缓直接导致了中国宏观经济增速下调。第二,城市经济增速“西高东低”和“南高北低”并存,南北分化比较明显,部分城市出现经济负增长。第三,部分后发城市经济增速后来居上,像成都、武汉、长沙等部分省会城市经济进入快速集聚阶段。

在城镇化方面,第一,处于不同发展阶段的地区和城市的城镇化推进速度存在明显差异。城镇化水平超过80%的上海、北京、天津等城镇化率的增速明显较缓。而城镇化水平较低的地区和城市的城镇化率增速相对较高,许多地区快于全国水平。第二,城市经济增速的整体放缓及分化正在叠加影响城镇化的空间结构调整,一些城市群内重点城市的常住人口增速近年来呈现加快之势。第三,城市经济增速放缓没有导致城镇化增速的减缓。先行地区和城市是中国常住人口城镇化的存量支撑主体,随着经济增速下调,其对中国城镇化的增量带动作用将有所减弱。而后发地区和城市经济增速相对较快,城镇化水平较低且正加速推进,为中国宏观经济下行和先行地区城镇化速度放慢形成缓冲,全国常住人口城镇化进程仍将保持稳步推进。

三、中国经济转型升级正处于极化期

1979至2016年,中国经济实现了年均9.6%的高速增长,创造了经济增长的奇迹。但是,我们也应看到,在创造这一增长奇迹的背后是我们过多地依赖投资和出口来拉动经济增长的事实。另一方面,金融危机以后,世界经济处于深度调整之中,发达国家的“再工业化”“制造业回流”趋势明显,贸易保护主义重新抬头,出口导向型的经济驱动模式受到严峻挑战。在这种情况下,通过经济转型升级重塑新的增长内生动力已迫在眉睫。目前,中国经济转型升级正处于极化期,总体上大多数城市的转型升级进展缓慢,只有少数城市已经取得明显进展,城市之间在经济转型升级方面的差距在拉大。

(一)出口需求总体低迷,增速在波动中分化

从城市视角来看,出口呈现总体上低迷不振、空间上高度分化,时间上波动加剧的态势。从总体来看,2015年全国257个主要城市出口平均增长0.51%,呈现低迷状态。2016年基本延续了上一年度的低迷态势,188个主要城市出口平均下降0.09%。从时间上看,同一城市出口增速波动很大。2016年,有79个城市的出口增速出现10%以上的波动,变化最大的是湖南怀化市。从空间上看,城市间出口增速分化极其严重。出口增速最高的武威,其增速高达266.67%,相反,最低的丽江,其增速是-49.5%,两者相差316%,可见城市间出口分化的严重程度。

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