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从城市看中国:格局演变、转型升级与持久繁荣

2017-06-23 06:41:24   

利用中国地级及以上城市的统计数据以及2015年、2016年各城市国民经济与社会发展统计公报数据的搜集整理,通过立体化、动态式的系统考察发现:

从城市层面GDP空间分布及变化来看,中国东中一体与“一网五带”经济空间新格局进一步凸现。主要表现在:第一,中心城市的经济集聚引领作用进一步增强,285个地级及以上城市中的前20%(57个城市)集聚全国近3/5的财富。第二,中部地区凭借中心城市的有力支撑正在不断崛起,东北地区由于中心城市支撑作用下降而出现持续下滑。第三,“一网五带”的“巨手型”城市中国经济空间格局进一步显现。东中部多中心城市群网中106个地级及以上城市创造的GDP占全国的比重在近年来保持在63%以上。西线沿长江上游城市发展带GDP比重持续增加,2015年达到了6.28%,有赶超东北沿京哈线城市发展带的可能。西北沿陇海兰新线城市发展带、西南沿沪昆线西段城市发展带、南线沿海城市发展带在全国的GDP比重尽管相对较小,但总体上呈增加趋势。

从城市人口分布及变化来看,中国人口流动出现新动向:中部地区、部分高行政等级城市人口流入增加。第一,城市人口增速在区域空间和城市行政级别层面上出现分化。第二,人口流向发生部分逆转,中部地区常住人口规模开始增加。第三,长三角等东部地区成熟城市群的多中心化显现,中西部城市群单核集聚进一步强化。

从城市群的发展演进来看,人口流向的部分逆转正在悄然改变着城市群及全国经济空间结构,中国城市群体系的多中心化愈加明显,而且对经济空间的支撑作用不断增强。一是由成熟型、成长型和潜在型城市群构成的中国城市群体系在首位度和规模—位序关系上表现出的多中心化在逐步显现,位序较低的城市群也在不断发展。二是城市群与非城市群、城市群之间分化明显,珠三角、长三角、京津冀等十大城市群已经成为中国经济空间的主体支撑。三是绝大多数城市群经济增速(均值)高于全国水平,城市群蕴藏着巨大的发展新动能。

二、经济增速放缓,城镇化质、量并重加速推进

从城市视角审视中国的发展动态需聚焦经济增速与城镇化进程这两大方面。从全国层面看,2010年以来,中国GDP增速逐年趋缓,由2010年10.6%下调至2016年的6.7%。在城镇化上,近年来中国城镇化率保持每年不低于1个百分点增速推进,2016年全国常住人口城镇化率为57.35%,比2015年提升1.25个百分点。全国经济增速的下调并没有引起城镇化进程的放缓。

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