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政策效应继续释放,房地产周期性拐点将不断逼近。倘若同比增幅为零,那么可以用一句通俗的话来概括,即“房价跌回一年前”。类似情况过去也存在,比如2014年9月70城房价指数同比增幅出现了由正转负的现象,市场真正进入降温周期。所以,对于此类曲线背后降温信号的把握显得很关键。另外,值得强调的一点是,当前楼市调整是一个逐渐降温的过程,并不能代表楼市出现了大拐点,只能理解为是一种周期性的拐点,即市场对此前过快上涨的房价的一种自我修正。
市场参与主体如何调整策略
从政策层或监管层的角度看,在坚持现有政策调控思路的情况下,也可以积极关注一些“市场噪音”。这里可以举三个例子。第一类是高价盘预售证管控过程中,部分楼盘或已私下交易,但没有纳入到网签数据中,这会干扰对真实房价的判断或统计。第二类是违规收取各类费用或资金。比如部分三四线城市就因存在违规收取团购费的做法而被举报。第三类是各类绕过限购政策的市场交易依然存在,类似补缴社保或先草签再延期一年网签的做法依然存在。这些交易恰是后续需要重点监管的内容。管控住此类交易,也有助于价格数据的更好统计。
而从企业或个人投资的角度看,对于此类房价指数要持客观冷静的态度。降温的过程并不否认市场机会的存在。比如,房价指数降温往往也和成交量下滑等因素有关。这个时候部分房企或因为资金吃紧,会采取转让股权等做法,这样也就产生了一些较好的并购机会。换句话说,很多房企只盯住市场降温的“负能量”,而没有看到降温背后的新机会。对于部分房企来说,若招拍挂市场上拿地比较困难,那么近期可以积极关注降温力度大的城市的相关项目。适当时候积极并购,反而能够体现出逆周期扩张的独特思维。个人购房者也可以有类似的逻辑。 (中新经纬APP)
【专家简介】严跃进,上海易居房地产研究院研究总监,研究方向为房地产市场与政策,同时对房地产大数据、区域市场投资风险等有独到见解。
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