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纳入了MSCI,A股却没大涨:它憋着呢

2017-06-21 17:53:11   

此外,在国际化上面, A股纳入MSCI,还将推动全球资金对中国资产的配置并推动人民币国际化。

为什么是这一次能成功?

MSCI(明晟公司)公布的2017 年度市场分类评审结果显示,此次纳入A股的决定在MSCI所咨询的国际机构投资者中得到了广泛支持。

这主要是由于中国内地与香港互联互通机制的正面发展,以及中国交易所放宽了对涉及 A股的全球金融产品进行预先审批的限制。此两项进展对提升中国A股市场的准入水平起到了积极的影响。

用Remy Briand的话说,中国内地与香港互联互通机制的发展完善为中国 A股市场的对外开放带来了革命性的积极变化。

说到变化,那就要A股第一次走上MSCI的“考场“说起。

2014年6月,遭到婉拒。在当年度MSCI的市场划分审议中,决定暂不将A股纳入新兴市场指数,但仍保留在审核名单中。

2015年6月,提出要求还是婉拒。在当年的年度审议中,MSCI公司仍把A股保留在审核名单中,并且提出A股市场三类改善要求,分别为资本管制、QFII(合格境外机构投资者)和RQFII(人民币合格境外投资者)额度分配以及实际收益权分配等问题。

2016年6月,再提要求又被婉拒。在三类改善要求基础上,MSCI进一步提出A股公司停牌的任意性以及境外设立A股衍生产品限制等问题。

但最终由于QFII(合格境外机构投资者)制度月度资本赎回限制存在潜在的流动性风险;防范大规模自愿停牌的交易所新规的执行情况;交易所对金融产品的预审批限制,这三大尚待解决的问题,MSCI又一次将A股拒之门外。

不可否认,近年来中国沪港通、深港通的启动运行,市场准入和流动性的改善,QFII和RQFII配额改革,对收益权问题的回应等都体现了中国A股不管推进改革和开放的努力。

这次A股能纳入MSCI,的确有问题得到改善。在2016年底深港通的开通后,深港通、沪港通的每日额度可用来解决赎回额度问题。同时,交易所出台了新的停复牌政策,对停复牌制度管理有所加强,停牌机制的不确定性减少。

但还有一个关键因素是助推此次A股纳入MSCI的原因,就是“精简版”方案。

何为“精简版”方案?打个比方,就是MSCI今年只让A股的精英来参加考试。

相比此前三次A股全部纳入的方案,今年3月份,MSCI公布了纳入A股的新方案,A股纳入的数量从448只降为169只。

具体来看,减少了178只中小市值个股、减少了61只AH个股、减少了32只停牌超过50天的个股以及减少了8只非互联互通个股。

这么一来,“精简版”方案减少了股票数量,降低了权重,解决了流动性和准入门槛的问题, 其中只包括了在互联互通机制中准入的大型上市公司,因此而解决了与 QFII 每月回国限额 20%相关的问题。

同时还通过在过去 12 个月内,移除任何长期(50 天或以上)被暂停的股票这一做法解决了自愿暂停交易的问题。

MSCI今天表示,绝大多数机构投资者同意采取MSCI初始仅纳入未经停牌的大盘股的建议。此外,许多机构投资者还建议MSCI考虑纳入在内地和香港两地上市的公司所对应的大盘A股(其H股是当前MSCI中国指数的成分股)。

由此,MSCI修改了其原有的建议,决定纳入能通过沪股通或深股通交易且不因停牌而被排除在外的所有大盘A股。这一变化将使得初始纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的中国A股数目从先前提案中的169只增加到222只。夏宾

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