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从国际航空市场潜力分析,按照空客公司在2016珠海航展上发布最新全球市场预测,未来20年,中国将需要约6000架新客机与货机,价值9450亿美元,占全球同期新飞机需求总量的18%。根据中国商飞公司去年发布的未来20年民用飞机市场预测分析,到2034年,全球喷气客机机队规模有望达到41949架,是现有机队的2.1倍。替代掉正常退役飞机,这一二十年将有37049架新机交付,价值总量接近5万亿美元,其中仅单通道喷气客机交付量约为24144架,价值达到2.25万亿美元。
产业链也就是价值链
除了以上可看得见、算得出的市场规模,以发展大飞机为代表的航空制造业的腾飞,还将撬动更巨大的产业链、金融链、贸易链、消费链。
按照中国民用航空工业发展路线图,中国大飞机研制将历经支线客机——干线客机——宽体客机的发展路径的发展路径。大飞机的量产,将打开中国航空产业的发展空间。航空制造一向是系统集成度高、产业带动力强、关联产业密集的高端装备行业。从产业关联度的角度,汽车制造的产业价值拉动比(产业自身市场价值:产业链价值)一般是1:4-5,而航空制造的产业价值拉动比一般高达1:8-9。如果这样估算,未来20年国产大飞机可延展的产业链将会带动高达数十万亿美元的价值生成链。
从直接的研发生产制造的产业链条看,发展大飞机对相关产业尤其是战略性新兴产业的拉动无疑十分巨大。航材、航电、机电、发动机等产业将随国产大飞机的航空产业链发展而不断壮大,尤其是建立起航空发动机的自主发展工业体系;伴随的还有航空机载、空管和地面设备及系统,国产航空材料体系和基础元器件等国产化率的持续跟进。
C919这架大飞机仅零部件就有4万多种、集中100多项技术专利,串起了国内完整的飞机制造产业链,不仅涵盖了整个中航工业体系,还覆盖了16家材料制造商和54家标准件制造商,集中了整机集成商、系统级综合供应商、特殊材料供应商,涉及相关上市公司就超过20多家。除了中航体系外,大飞机研制还延展到宝钢等国字头的央企,以及提供特殊装备制造或器材的民营企业和国外的GE、霍尼韦尔、CFM等飞机制造领域的跨国巨头。C919采用的“主制造商-供应商”模式,不仅探索出了“中国研发、全球招标”的技术创新新路径,更是以这样的模式将中国航空制造融入了国际航空产业链,为下一步参与全球航空工业分工,进而拓展国家高端航空市场竞争打下了基础。
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