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圆通175亿元估值过高?赵薇马云赚翻股民笑不出

2016-08-08 09:50:40   中国经济网

毛利率数据则表现得更为直观。2013年度、2014年度和2015年度,圆通速递主营业务毛利率分别为21.49%、16.79%和13.42%,连续三年下滑。

对于毛利率连续下滑,圆通速递的解释是,为支持加盟商业务发展,报告期内圆通速递对面单费、中转费的收费标准进行了一定幅度下调。但业内人士认为,成本的上升和竞争的白热化才是利润率下滑的主要因素,快递企业通过“价格战”占据份额,也是造成快递行业规模不断增长而行业平均单价却呈现下降趋势的原因。

尽管盈利能力下滑,但圆通速递却承诺在借壳上市后,2016~2018年度扣除非经常性损益后归属于母公司所有者的净利润分别不低于11亿元、13.3亿元和15.5亿元。

在国家邮政局智库专家、永驿物联智库负责人邵仲林看来,上市的挑战还在后面,未来快递行业竞争将更加激烈。“上市是一把双刃剑,快递企业到了现在,从过去劳动密集型到现在资本密集型、技术密集型和装备密集型,现在都开始买飞机组建自己的机队、买土地做分拨中心,这些都要资本大量投入。”但在行业竞争和业绩压力之下,资本到底能给行业带来多大的推动作用,很难预料。

快递行业难掩窘境

据蓝鲸TMT报道,目前来看,快递行业发展之路几乎是一片繁荣,融资、上市者日益增多。但不可否认的是,整个行业依旧面临着若干窘境。

首先,行业整体增速放缓,利润暴跌。在整体经济增速放缓的背景下,快递行业也不可避免受到冲击。根据国家邮政发布的预测数据,今年中国快递行业业务量将完成275亿件,虽然业务规模同比增长34%,但增速低于2015年48%,并终结了此前连续四年保持超50%增长的纪录。

有报道称,2015年快递公司每件业务的利润可能低于0.5元,目前快递行业平均利润率已降至3%-5%,或者更低。

其次,家族式企业难以建立管理体制。据悉,申通、圆通等快递公司的实际掌控人,有的是兄妹,有的是同学,有的还是夫妻关系;甚至不同的快递公司领导层之间也互有关联,共同构成了“桐庐帮”。

从管理模式看,家族式企业能够在做高层决策时更有效率,毕竟一家人的立场和出发点比较容易保持一致。但这种模式下的企业内部关系错综复杂,极容易出现高层领导权责不明、任人唯亲、管理混乱等现象,很难建立比较规范有效的管理体制,对公司的整体管理增加一定难度。

最后,加盟制模式弊端凸显,投诉率快速攀升。当前,国内快递行业以民营企业为主,除了国有的邮政EMS和顺丰、德邦等少数公司是直营外,其余大部分民营快递企业均是采用加盟模式。但是,快递加盟模式的弊端正日益凸显。这一模式之下,加盟商往往各自为政,企业对加盟商的管理松散、快递服务质量难以提高,导致投诉率快速攀升已是不争的事实。

马云又赚数十亿 赵薇获利数千万元

据华西都市报报道,随着圆通借壳上市重组草案的公布,阿里系潜伏圆通速递的事实也浮出水面,除此之外,战略投资者云锋新创也颇引人注意,因为该基金的股东之一是近来屡次卷入热门事件的影视明星赵薇。

2015年5月,阿里巴巴集团宣布联手云锋新创战略投资圆通速递,但投资金额成谜。重组草案显示,阿里创投和云锋新创分别持股11.09%和6.43%,阿里系两家公司当时约耗资25亿元,取得了圆通20%的股份。           

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