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标普下调中国主权信用评级 专家:不客观、有矛盾、太短视

2017-09-22 12:08:39   中国经济网

与之类似,赵锡军也向《每日经济新闻》记者举例说,在美国次贷危机前,不少评级机构给予一些次级贷比较高的评级,完全没预计到其中的风险。

专家表示,信用评级通常采用“顺周期”法,即采取简单趋势外推的方法来作出判断,这是评级不够准确的主要原因,这种短视也忽视了经济周期变化、结构性变化等基本因素。

贾康告诉《每日经济新闻》记者:“评级预测应以‘前瞻性’引导市场行为,结合中国经济基本面的走势作出相关预测和判断,是十分关键的评级要领。”

如果以更具前瞻性的眼光来看中国经济,标普的报告就更站不住脚了。

值得注意的是,今年上半年,中国经济增长稳中有升,6.9%的GDP增速高于去年。也正如中国宏观经济研究院形势分析小组刊文分析,今年上半年的6.9%与2015年时的增长6.9%相比,有更高的含金量。

上述小组刊文称,今年上半年6.9%增速背后,反映的是实体经济加快向中高端迈进,产业结构不断调整优化,需求结构不断改善优化,东部、中部、西部地区经济增长率差距缩小,困难地区经济恶化局面得到遏制,传统产业加速改造提升,大众创业、万众创新持续升温,工业机器人和电子商务、在线医疗、共享单车等“互联网+”新动能加快集聚扩散,规模比重明显提高。

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