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央行最近一次降准是在2016年3月。到今年8月末,外汇占款累计减少2.3万亿元。为了对冲基础货币投放减少,央行主要通过“SLF+MLF+PSL”等工具提供流动性。
在民生银行首席研究员温彬看来,这些方法存在两个不足:一是金融机构获得流动性的成本较高;二是中小金融机构不能直接从央行获得MLF等工具的支持。
因此,他认为,在当前人民币升值预期强化的背景下,降低法定存款准备金率不仅有空间,也有必要。实施降准后,央行完全可以通过“减少MLF规模+正回购”的工具组合,防止可能出现的流动性过剩,继续保持稳健中性的货币政策基调不变。
九州证券首席经济学家邓海清也认为,目前债券利率居高不下,降准有利于缓解市场预期,“严监管+中货币”才是债市的合理政策搭配。与此同时,央行的预期引导能力加强,“降准=宽松”的误读可能性降低。
但是,兴业研究昨日发布的一篇题为《来的不是降准,可能是正回购》的报告却认为,进入9月,央行逆回购操作多次暂停,当下余额仅剩900亿元,即将“见底”,这意味着过去坐等逆回购自然到期收回流动性的手段即将无效。如果未来央行希望继续维持“不松不紧”,那么就不得不考虑精准调节流动性的新手段。
这篇报告称,考虑到经济数据不存在快速回落的可能性、去杠杆仍需要推进、季末将有财政支出的补充以及外汇占款有望转正,央行或仍有回笼资金的需要,其中重启尘封近3年的正回购,是个可以考虑的选项。
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